diff --git "a/3UTfFMTqH70.txt" "b/3UTfFMTqH70.txt"
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+align:start position:0%
+ 
+welcome to lecture 17
+
+ align:start position:0%
+welcome to lecture 17
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+welcome to lecture 17
+this lecture talks about state dependent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this lecture talks about state dependent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this lecture talks about state dependent
+preferences projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences projection
+and attribution paths
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+the plan for today is to talk about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the plan for today is to talk about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the plan for today is to talk about
+preference changes so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference changes so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference changes so
+we're going to look at different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we're going to look at different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we're going to look at different
+circumstances in which people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+circumstances in which people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+circumstances in which people's
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+predictably uh and sometimes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predictably uh and sometimes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predictably uh and sometimes
+unpredictably change over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unpredictably change over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unpredictably change over time
+that is to say sometimes people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say sometimes people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say sometimes people are
+hungry tired or in pain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry tired or in pain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry tired or in pain
+and their preferences for certain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and their preferences for certain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and their preferences for certain
+outcomes may be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outcomes may be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outcomes may be
+determined by that underlying state of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+determined by that underlying state of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+determined by that underlying state of
+like hunger for example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like hunger for example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like hunger for example
+now it's pretty clear that people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now it's pretty clear that people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now it's pretty clear that people's
+preferences change according to those
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences change according to those
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences change according to those
+states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states
+as in like when somebody is hungry they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as in like when somebody is hungry they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as in like when somebody is hungry they
+want different things they want to eat
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want different things they want to eat
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want different things they want to eat
+different kinds of things that when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different kinds of things that when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different kinds of things that when
+they're not hungry and so on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're not hungry and so on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're not hungry and so on
+um but people nevertheless have trouble
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but people nevertheless have trouble
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but people nevertheless have trouble
+predicting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting
+their preference changes that is to say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preference changes that is to say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preference changes that is to say
+if somebody is hungry they may have a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if somebody is hungry they may have a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if somebody is hungry they may have a
+hard time predicting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hard time predicting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hard time predicting
+how it feels when they're not hungry and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it feels when they're not hungry and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it feels when they're not hungry and
+vice versa
+
+ align:start position:0%
+vice versa
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+vice versa
+so uh notice that this lecture is a sort
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so uh notice that this lecture is a sort
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so uh notice that this lecture is a sort
+of a continuation or natural
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of a continuation or natural
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of a continuation or natural
+continuation of our lectures on beliefs
+
+ align:start position:0%
+continuation of our lectures on beliefs
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+continuation of our lectures on beliefs
+from before so before we looked at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from before so before we looked at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from before so before we looked at
+people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+trying to learn about unknown
+
+ align:start position:0%
+trying to learn about unknown
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+trying to learn about unknown
+information around them and we looked at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+information around them and we looked at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+information around them and we looked at
+various deviations why people are not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+various deviations why people are not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+various deviations why people are not
+able to learn
+
+ align:start position:0%
+able to learn
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+able to learn
+now we're going to look at people trying
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now we're going to look at people trying
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now we're going to look at people trying
+to learn or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to learn or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to learn or
+failing to learn at times about their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+failing to learn at times about their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+failing to learn at times about their
+own preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+own preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+own preferences
+and an important particular case here is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and an important particular case here is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and an important particular case here is
+what's called production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's called production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's called production bias
+which is people's lack or for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is people's lack or for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is people's lack or for
+inadequate ability to predict their own
+
+ align:start position:0%
+inadequate ability to predict their own
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+inadequate ability to predict their own
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+in particular for different states of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular for different states of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular for different states of
+the world in the future i'm going to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the world in the future i'm going to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the world in the future i'm going to be
+more specific about that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more specific about that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more specific about that
+but mostly we're going to talk about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but mostly we're going to talk about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but mostly we're going to talk about
+projection bias in the paper by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias in the paper by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias in the paper by
+lowenstein at all which is in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lowenstein at all which is in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lowenstein at all which is in the
+readings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+readings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+readings
+we're going to talk very um briefly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we're going to talk very um briefly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we're going to talk very um briefly
+about attribution bias and that's going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about attribution bias and that's going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about attribution bias and that's going
+to be covered in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be covered in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be covered in
+recitation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+okay so although not typically
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so although not typically
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so although not typically
+emphasized in economics the simple and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+emphasized in economics the simple and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+emphasized in economics the simple and
+obvious fact is that our preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+obvious fact is that our preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+obvious fact is that our preferences
+change over time there's various ways in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change over time there's various ways in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change over time there's various ways in
+which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which
+our preferences change one is short-term
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our preferences change one is short-term
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our preferences change one is short-term
+temporary fluctuations and you can call
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary fluctuations and you can call
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary fluctuations and you can call
+them sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them sort of
+state dependent preferences you can call
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state dependent preferences you can call
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state dependent preferences you can call
+all of what we're going to talk about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all of what we're going to talk about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all of what we're going to talk about
+state dependent preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state dependent preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state dependent preferences
+um here is the state is like a short run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um here is the state is like a short run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um here is the state is like a short run
+physiological or psychological state for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+physiological or psychological state for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+physiological or psychological state for
+example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example
+hunger pain or the like or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger pain or the like or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger pain or the like or
+a psychological state such as mood
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a psychological state such as mood
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a psychological state such as mood
+i'm going to talk about all of these in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm going to talk about all of these in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm going to talk about all of these in
+more detail
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more detail
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more detail
+second there are long run systematic
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second there are long run systematic
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second there are long run systematic
+changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+changes
+this could be due to own choices such as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this could be due to own choices such as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this could be due to own choices such as
+addiction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addiction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addiction
+so like if somebody has been drinking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so like if somebody has been drinking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so like if somebody has been drinking
+alcohol for the last 10 years
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alcohol for the last 10 years
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alcohol for the last 10 years
+their utility from drinking alcohol or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their utility from drinking alcohol or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their utility from drinking alcohol or
+not drinking alcohol is quite different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not drinking alcohol is quite different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not drinking alcohol is quite different
+from somebody
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from somebody
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from somebody
+who has not been drinking um ever same
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who has not been drinking um ever same
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who has not been drinking um ever same
+is true for smoking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is true for smoking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is true for smoking
+and the like or it could be independent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the like or it could be independent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the like or it could be independent
+of one's choices for example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of one's choices for example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of one's choices for example
+aging so predictably people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+aging so predictably people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+aging so predictably people's
+preferences change over time when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences change over time when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences change over time when
+they're 20 or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're 20 or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're 20 or
+years old versus when they're 80 years
+
+ align:start position:0%
+years old versus when they're 80 years
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+years old versus when they're 80 years
+old
+
+ align:start position:0%
+old
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+old
+notice that for addiction there's also
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that for addiction there's also
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that for addiction there's also
+some short run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some short run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some short run
+temporary fluctuation such as when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary fluctuation such as when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary fluctuation such as when
+people have just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people have just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people have just
+smoked a cigarette versus not their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked a cigarette versus not their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked a cigarette versus not their
+preferences for an additional cigarette
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences for an additional cigarette
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences for an additional cigarette
+might be quite different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be quite different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be quite different
+but then there's also long-run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then there's also long-run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then there's also long-run
+systematic changes which is like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+systematic changes which is like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+systematic changes which is like
+if somebody has been smoking a lot
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if somebody has been smoking a lot
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if somebody has been smoking a lot
+during the last you know 10 years versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+during the last you know 10 years versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+during the last you know 10 years versus
+not so this smoking or addiction in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not so this smoking or addiction in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not so this smoking or addiction in
+particular
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular
+has both short-term and long-term uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+has both short-term and long-term uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+has both short-term and long-term uh
+temporary and systematic changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary and systematic changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+temporary and systematic changes
+in people's preferences and then there's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people's preferences and then there's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people's preferences and then there's
+adaptation to changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+adaptation to changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+adaptation to changes
+which happens often for big changes such
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which happens often for big changes such
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which happens often for big changes such
+as standard of living or small changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as standard of living or small changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as standard of living or small changes
+such as smug ownership
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such as smug ownership
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such as smug ownership
+what's an example here for example if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's an example here for example if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's an example here for example if
+people win the lottery they become
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people win the lottery they become
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people win the lottery they become
+happier
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happier
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happier
+um they become actually a lot happier um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they become actually a lot happier um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they become actually a lot happier um
+very quickly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very quickly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very quickly
+but then that sort of reverts back to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then that sort of reverts back to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then that sort of reverts back to
+like their the previous standard over
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like their the previous standard over
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like their the previous standard over
+time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time
+people a lottery one receiving like a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people a lottery one receiving like a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people a lottery one receiving like a
+few years later clearly are happier than
+
+ align:start position:0%
+few years later clearly are happier than
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+few years later clearly are happier than
+people who have not won the lottery but
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people who have not won the lottery but
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people who have not won the lottery but
+their uh increase in happiness
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their uh increase in happiness
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their uh increase in happiness
+uh decreases um over time okay so so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh decreases um over time okay so so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh decreases um over time okay so so
+these are three different types of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+these are three different types of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+these are three different types of
+sets of preference changes we're going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sets of preference changes we're going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sets of preference changes we're going
+to mostly focus in the lecture today
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to mostly focus in the lecture today
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to mostly focus in the lecture today
+on number one short term temporary
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on number one short term temporary
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on number one short term temporary
+fluctuation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fluctuation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fluctuation
+now what i'm going to what am i talking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what i'm going to what am i talking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what i'm going to what am i talking
+about here so one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about here so one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about here so one
+example here is hunger now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example here is hunger now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example here is hunger now
+studying hunger is difficult in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+studying hunger is difficult in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+studying hunger is difficult in
+experiments because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiments because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiments because
+it's unethical to starve people you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's unethical to starve people you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's unethical to starve people you
+could of course find hungry people and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could of course find hungry people and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could of course find hungry people and
+give them food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give them food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give them food
+that's in some sense what was done once
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's in some sense what was done once
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's in some sense what was done once
+in what's called in the minnesota
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in what's called in the minnesota
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in what's called in the minnesota
+starvation experiment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starvation experiment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starvation experiment
+this is an experiment that was motivated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this is an experiment that was motivated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this is an experiment that was motivated
+by the fact that there was lots of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by the fact that there was lots of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by the fact that there was lots of
+soldiers in the second world war in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+soldiers in the second world war in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+soldiers in the second world war in the
+us and europe
+
+ align:start position:0%
+us and europe
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+us and europe
+from the us and europe and in many other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from the us and europe and in many other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from the us and europe and in many other
+places
+
+ align:start position:0%
+places
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+places
+and these soldiers had been starved from
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and these soldiers had been starved from
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and these soldiers had been starved from
+the war for a long time and they came
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the war for a long time and they came
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the war for a long time and they came
+back from the war to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back from the war to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back from the war to
+back to the u.s and one simple question
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back to the u.s and one simple question
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back to the u.s and one simple question
+was as well when you when you have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was as well when you when you have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was as well when you when you have
+people who have been starved
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people who have been starved
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people who have been starved
+um have not eaten um for a long time or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um have not eaten um for a long time or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um have not eaten um for a long time or
+very little for a long time how do you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very little for a long time how do you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very little for a long time how do you
+best reintegrate them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+best reintegrate them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+best reintegrate them
+into a society or like how do you best
+
+ align:start position:0%
+into a society or like how do you best
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+into a society or like how do you best
+sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of
+feed them do you feed them very quickly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feed them do you feed them very quickly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feed them do you feed them very quickly
+like a lot or do you sort of gradually
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like a lot or do you sort of gradually
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like a lot or do you sort of gradually
+increase their food take
+
+ align:start position:0%
+increase their food take
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+increase their food take
+over time so then the army did some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time so then the army did some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time so then the army did some
+experiments with healthy volunteers
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiments with healthy volunteers
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiments with healthy volunteers
+such as this guy here on the left and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such as this guy here on the left and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such as this guy here on the left and
+in people were starved literally starved
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people were starved literally starved
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people were starved literally starved
+by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by
+getting very little food on for a while
+
+ align:start position:0%
+getting very little food on for a while
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+getting very little food on for a while
+such that you know after a few weeks the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such that you know after a few weeks the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+such that you know after a few weeks the
+guy would look like this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+guy would look like this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+guy would look like this
+and then the army would look at people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then the army would look at people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then the army would look at people's
+behavior over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavior over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavior over time
+they were mostly interested in like once
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were mostly interested in like once
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were mostly interested in like once
+you have somebody was not eaten for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you have somebody was not eaten for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you have somebody was not eaten for
+quite a while once you give them more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite a while once you give them more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite a while once you give them more
+food what's happening to their behavior
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food what's happening to their behavior
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food what's happening to their behavior
+and what's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what's
+you know the best way of doing that um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know the best way of doing that um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know the best way of doing that um
+coincidentally they also recorded what
+
+ align:start position:0%
+coincidentally they also recorded what
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+coincidentally they also recorded what
+what's happening in the first part of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's happening in the first part of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's happening in the first part of
+the experiment when people were starved
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the experiment when people were starved
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the experiment when people were starved
+to start with and so you know as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to start with and so you know as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to start with and so you know as
+expected people get
+
+ align:start position:0%
+expected people get
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+expected people get
+extremely focused on food when they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extremely focused on food when they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extremely focused on food when they
+don't eat for a while they really get
+
+ align:start position:0%
+don't eat for a while they really get
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+don't eat for a while they really get
+really really interested in learning
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really interested in learning
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really interested in learning
+about what's going on with food and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about what's going on with food and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about what's going on with food and
+when they get next food and so on but as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they get next food and so on but as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they get next food and so on but as
+it happens it seems to me that their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it happens it seems to me that their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it happens it seems to me that their
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+also change um in various other ways in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also change um in various other ways in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also change um in various other ways in
+particular see people seem to lose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular see people seem to lose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular see people seem to lose
+interest and lots of other activities
+
+ align:start position:0%
+interest and lots of other activities
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+interest and lots of other activities
+it's reported
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's reported
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's reported
+decreased alertness lack of self-control
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decreased alertness lack of self-control
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decreased alertness lack of self-control
+general apathy people are just sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+general apathy people are just sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+general apathy people are just sort of
+like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+almost like a different person when they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+almost like a different person when they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+almost like a different person when they
+are almost starved compared to like when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are almost starved compared to like when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are almost starved compared to like when
+they have eaten
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they have eaten
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they have eaten
+um a lot here are some testimonies
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um a lot here are some testimonies
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um a lot here are some testimonies
+from from these soldiers uh one of them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from from these soldiers uh one of them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from from these soldiers uh one of them
+is the acquisition of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the acquisition of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the acquisition of
+food-related items was a reasonable
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food-related items was a reasonable
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food-related items was a reasonable
+extension of their heightened interest
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extension of their heightened interest
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extension of their heightened interest
+in food so as we expect people get
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in food so as we expect people get
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in food so as we expect people get
+really interested in food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really interested in food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really interested in food
+much less reasonable was the buying of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much less reasonable was the buying of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much less reasonable was the buying of
+old books unnecessary secondhand clothes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+old books unnecessary secondhand clothes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+old books unnecessary secondhand clothes
+knickknacks and other junk often after
+
+ align:start position:0%
+knickknacks and other junk often after
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+knickknacks and other junk often after
+making such purchases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making such purchases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making such purchases
+which could be only afforded only with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which could be only afforded only with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which could be only afforded only with
+sacrifice the men would be puzzled as to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sacrifice the men would be puzzled as to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sacrifice the men would be puzzled as to
+why they had bought such more or less
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why they had bought such more or less
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why they had bought such more or less
+useless articles
+
+ align:start position:0%
+useless articles
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+useless articles
+so that's essentially sort of saying
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that's essentially sort of saying
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that's essentially sort of saying
+that people got really interested in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that people got really interested in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that people got really interested in
+certain purchases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+certain purchases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+certain purchases
+their preferences towards those kinds of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences towards those kinds of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences towards those kinds of
+purchases seems to have changed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+purchases seems to have changed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+purchases seems to have changed
+they seem to have also some preference
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they seem to have also some preference
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they seem to have also some preference
+reversal they seem to want to buy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+reversal they seem to want to buy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+reversal they seem to want to buy
+certain things and then wonder
+
+ align:start position:0%
+certain things and then wonder
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+certain things and then wonder
+afterwards
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afterwards
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afterwards
+afterwards why they did so um which all
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afterwards why they did so um which all
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afterwards why they did so um which all
+seems to be the consequence of being
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to be the consequence of being
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to be the consequence of being
+really really hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really hungry
+then came the day when i lost my will to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then came the day when i lost my will to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then came the day when i lost my will to
+activity
+
+ align:start position:0%
+activity
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+activity
+i no longer care to do anything that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i no longer care to do anything that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i no longer care to do anything that
+required energy and days began to drag
+
+ align:start position:0%
+required energy and days began to drag
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+required energy and days began to drag
+it seems to be in some ways like a like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it seems to be in some ways like a like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it seems to be in some ways like a like
+a direct effect of like having a little
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a direct effect of like having a little
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a direct effect of like having a little
+caloric intake
+
+ align:start position:0%
+caloric intake
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+caloric intake
+but really um people's preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but really um people's preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but really um people's preferences
+towards physical or any other activity
+
+ align:start position:0%
+towards physical or any other activity
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+towards physical or any other activity
+seems to have changed quite a bit due to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to have changed quite a bit due to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to have changed quite a bit due to
+hunger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger
+um and another one here's uh there's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and another one here's uh there's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and another one here's uh there's
+nothing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+nothing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+nothing
+that can uh hold my interest for long i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that can uh hold my interest for long i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that can uh hold my interest for long i
+wait for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wait for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wait for
+meal time so this is your people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+meal time so this is your people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+meal time so this is your people's
+attention seems to really be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+attention seems to really be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+attention seems to really be
+uh lowered quite a bit and to the extent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh lowered quite a bit and to the extent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh lowered quite a bit and to the extent
+that we think attention
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that we think attention
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that we think attention
+affects people's preferences in decision
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affects people's preferences in decision
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affects people's preferences in decision
+making in various ways
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making in various ways
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making in various ways
+again hunger seems to have this effect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again hunger seems to have this effect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again hunger seems to have this effect
+on people's home choices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on people's home choices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on people's home choices
+now what's a more sort of like real
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what's a more sort of like real
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what's a more sort of like real
+world example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+world example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+world example
+for for you guys well that's shopping on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for for you guys well that's shopping on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for for you guys well that's shopping on
+an empty stomach
+
+ align:start position:0%
+an empty stomach
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+an empty stomach
+it's sort of a classic study by this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's sort of a classic study by this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's sort of a classic study by this
+ignis but in canoes from 1969 but
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ignis but in canoes from 1969 but
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ignis but in canoes from 1969 but
+there's sort of other evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's sort of other evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's sort of other evidence
+later and the folk wisdom is that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+later and the folk wisdom is that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+later and the folk wisdom is that
+shopping on an empty stomach leads
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping on an empty stomach leads
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping on an empty stomach leads
+people to buy more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people to buy more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people to buy more
+and perhaps also on more junk food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and perhaps also on more junk food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and perhaps also on more junk food
+now how do you study this well you can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now how do you study this well you can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now how do you study this well you can
+think about different ways in which you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think about different ways in which you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think about different ways in which you
+might do that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might do that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might do that
+you could sort of induce people directly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you could sort of induce people directly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you could sort of induce people directly
+to eat when they're hungry versus not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to eat when they're hungry versus not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to eat when they're hungry versus not
+um you know uh uh there's various other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know uh uh there's various other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know uh uh there's various other
+ways in which you could think about like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ways in which you could think about like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ways in which you could think about like
+setting up experiments
+
+ align:start position:0%
+setting up experiments
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+setting up experiments
+now one very simple ways in which one um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now one very simple ways in which one um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now one very simple ways in which one um
+i can study this issue is by just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i can study this issue is by just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i can study this issue is by just
+randomly giving
+
+ align:start position:0%
+randomly giving
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+randomly giving
+a sample of individuals entering a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a sample of individuals entering a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a sample of individuals entering a
+supermarket a candy bar
+
+ align:start position:0%
+supermarket a candy bar
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+supermarket a candy bar
+could be a candy bar it could be also
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could be a candy bar it could be also
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could be a candy bar it could be also
+some power bar is there some other food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some power bar is there some other food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some power bar is there some other food
+and so now essentially what you doing is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so now essentially what you doing is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so now essentially what you doing is
+you take a bunch of people who go
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you take a bunch of people who go
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you take a bunch of people who go
+shopping and uh they might be some of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping and uh they might be some of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping and uh they might be some of
+them might be hungry and some might not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them might be hungry and some might not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them might be hungry and some might not
+be but then the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be but then the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be but then the
+ones that are hungry in particular when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ones that are hungry in particular when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ones that are hungry in particular when
+they eat like a candy bar or any other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they eat like a candy bar or any other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they eat like a candy bar or any other
+food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food
+they might they become less hungry and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might they become less hungry and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might they become less hungry and
+so then we have a treatment condition
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then we have a treatment condition
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then we have a treatment condition
+that's less hungry and a control
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's less hungry and a control
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's less hungry and a control
+condition was not giving any
+
+ align:start position:0%
+condition was not giving any
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+condition was not giving any
+food who is like more hungry and so then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food who is like more hungry and so then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food who is like more hungry and so then
+um that allows essentially to look at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that allows essentially to look at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that allows essentially to look at
+like um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like um
+um uh variation in like whether people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh variation in like whether people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh variation in like whether people
+are currently hungry um while shopping
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are currently hungry um while shopping
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are currently hungry um while shopping
+another thing one could do is one could
+
+ align:start position:0%
+another thing one could do is one could
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+another thing one could do is one could
+vary the timing of the last meal before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+vary the timing of the last meal before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+vary the timing of the last meal before
+shopping there you worry a little bit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping there you worry a little bit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping there you worry a little bit
+like if that's not experimentally
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like if that's not experimentally
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like if that's not experimentally
+induced that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+induced that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+induced that
+the people who like go shopping right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the people who like go shopping right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the people who like go shopping right
+after having a meal versus not might be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+after having a meal versus not might be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+after having a meal versus not might be
+quite different than there is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite different than there is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite different than there is
+other ways but you could in principle
+
+ align:start position:0%
+other ways but you could in principle
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+other ways but you could in principle
+also like experimentally induce
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also like experimentally induce
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also like experimentally induce
+that and then you know you can look at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that and then you know you can look at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that and then you know you can look at
+like monitor how how much and what kind
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like monitor how how much and what kind
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like monitor how how much and what kind
+of food people buy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of food people buy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of food people buy
+so hungry people tend to buy more so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so hungry people tend to buy more so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so hungry people tend to buy more so
+they they just you buy more food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they they just you buy more food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they they just you buy more food
+they also more telling they buy more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they also more telling they buy more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they also more telling they buy more
+junk food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+junk food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+junk food
+so their preferences really seem to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so their preferences really seem to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so their preferences really seem to be
+uh different to be clear people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh different to be clear people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh different to be clear people
+tend to buy more and not just sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tend to buy more and not just sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tend to buy more and not just sort of
+like say i'm going to buy like now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like say i'm going to buy like now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like say i'm going to buy like now
+i'm a power bar or like example a banana
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm a power bar or like example a banana
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm a power bar or like example a banana
+because i'm really hungry i'm going to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because i'm really hungry i'm going to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because i'm really hungry i'm going to
+buy it right after
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy it right after
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy it right after
+the store but they buy significantly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the store but they buy significantly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the store but they buy significantly
+more more than can be explained by just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more more than can be explained by just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more more than can be explained by just
+filling your immediate hunger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+filling your immediate hunger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+filling your immediate hunger
+and in particular they also seem to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular they also seem to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular they also seem to
+change the type of food that they buy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change the type of food that they buy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change the type of food that they buy
+in particular in this case here more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular in this case here more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular in this case here more
+junk food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+junk food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+junk food
+kind of what this thing looks like the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+kind of what this thing looks like the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+kind of what this thing looks like the
+left guy is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+left guy is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+left guy is
+uh full he he buys lots of lettuce diet
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh full he he buys lots of lettuce diet
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh full he he buys lots of lettuce diet
+water and so on the guy on the right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+water and so on the guy on the right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+water and so on the guy on the right
+um is hungry he buys all sorts of things
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um is hungry he buys all sorts of things
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um is hungry he buys all sorts of things
+a lot more as you can see um and a lot
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a lot more as you can see um and a lot
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a lot more as you can see um and a lot
+of also like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of also like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of also like
+unhealthy food including tortilla chips
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy food including tortilla chips
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy food including tortilla chips
+cheese sugar water
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cheese sugar water
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cheese sugar water
+um and so on uh so you know next time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and so on uh so you know next time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and so on uh so you know next time
+you go shopping you should
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you go shopping you should
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you go shopping you should
+introspect and see what your preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+introspect and see what your preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+introspect and see what your preferences
+towards what you buy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+towards what you buy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+towards what you buy
+have been affected now another thing you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have been affected now another thing you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have been affected now another thing you
+can think about is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+can think about is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+can think about is
+uh that affects your preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh that affects your preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh that affects your preferences
+underlying state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying state
+is your sleep when you're tired the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is your sleep when you're tired the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is your sleep when you're tired the
+whole world seems different in various
+
+ align:start position:0%
+whole world seems different in various
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+whole world seems different in various
+ways
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ways
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ways
+um you know one example could you think
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know one example could you think
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know one example could you think
+about it's like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about it's like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about it's like
+self-control sleep deprivation is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+self-control sleep deprivation is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+self-control sleep deprivation is
+associated with lack of self-control
+
+ align:start position:0%
+associated with lack of self-control
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+associated with lack of self-control
+um there's sort of this literature old
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's sort of this literature old
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's sort of this literature old
+literature that says self-control is a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+literature that says self-control is a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+literature that says self-control is a
+muscle that replenishes overnight
+
+ align:start position:0%
+muscle that replenishes overnight
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+muscle that replenishes overnight
+there's some issues with this um uh with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's some issues with this um uh with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's some issues with this um uh with
+this literature
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this literature
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this literature
+there's some experiments that might not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's some experiments that might not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's some experiments that might not
+necessarily um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+necessarily um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+necessarily um
+uh replicate uh uh uh but the idea that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh replicate uh uh uh but the idea that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh replicate uh uh uh but the idea that
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+lack of self-control um uh might be a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lack of self-control um uh might be a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lack of self-control um uh might be a
+consequence of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequence of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequence of
+lack of sleep uh seems very plausible um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lack of sleep uh seems very plausible um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lack of sleep uh seems very plausible um
+in various ways uh uh notice that nicole
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in various ways uh uh notice that nicole
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in various ways uh uh notice that nicole
+should also be causality in the other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+should also be causality in the other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+should also be causality in the other
+direction lack of self-control may also
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction lack of self-control may also
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction lack of self-control may also
+be a cause of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be a cause of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be a cause of
+poor sleep now uh there's some evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+poor sleep now uh there's some evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+poor sleep now uh there's some evidence
+that sleep affects
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that sleep affects
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that sleep affects
+proposed preferences um when people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+proposed preferences um when people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+proposed preferences um when people are
+sleep deprived
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep deprived
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep deprived
+um they tend to gain weight uh tired
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they tend to gain weight uh tired
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they tend to gain weight uh tired
+people engage more in what's called
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people engage more in what's called
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people engage more in what's called
+cyber loafing you serve more in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cyber loafing you serve more in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cyber loafing you serve more in the
+internet
+
+ align:start position:0%
+internet
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+internet
+um there's also some evidence that sleep
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's also some evidence that sleep
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's also some evidence that sleep
+might or lack of sleep might affect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might or lack of sleep might affect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might or lack of sleep might affect
+ethical behavior people cheat more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethical behavior people cheat more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethical behavior people cheat more
+when they're tired um and we have some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're tired um and we have some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're tired um and we have some
+evidence in our experiment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence in our experiment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence in our experiment
+in india which i'm going to show you in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in india which i'm going to show you in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in india which i'm going to show you in
+a little bit uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a little bit uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a little bit uh
+at the end of the semester that maps
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the end of the semester that maps
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the end of the semester that maps
+increase savings and seem to reduce
+
+ align:start position:0%
+increase savings and seem to reduce
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+increase savings and seem to reduce
+people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's
+um present by us so really this is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um present by us so really this is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um present by us so really this is
+some evidence of sleep affecting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some evidence of sleep affecting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some evidence of sleep affecting
+people's time preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's time preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's time preferences
+uh another uh example is badger adolent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh another uh example is badger adolent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh another uh example is badger adolent
+and addiction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and addiction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and addiction
+um this is a very small study with only
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this is a very small study with only
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this is a very small study with only
+like 13 subjects
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like 13 subjects
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like 13 subjects
+you know you might sort of take all of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know you might sort of take all of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know you might sort of take all of
+what's in there with a little bit of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's in there with a little bit of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's in there with a little bit of
+grain of salt
+
+ align:start position:0%
+grain of salt
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+grain of salt
+um but you know i think the the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but you know i think the the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but you know i think the the
+underlying message and the findings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying message and the findings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying message and the findings
+are are correct so what did bachelor
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are are correct so what did bachelor
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are are correct so what did bachelor
+doll do
+
+ align:start position:0%
+doll do
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+doll do
+they elicited people's willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they elicited people's willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they elicited people's willingness to
+pay for a second dose of the heroine
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose of the heroine
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose of the heroine
+substitute bop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+substitute bop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+substitute bop
+these are heroin addicts that are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+these are heroin addicts that are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+these are heroin addicts that are
+recovering and they tend to have um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recovering and they tend to have um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recovering and they tend to have um
+often cravings and dop essentially helps
+
+ align:start position:0%
+often cravings and dop essentially helps
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+often cravings and dop essentially helps
+people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+not to relapse and not to take heroin
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not to relapse and not to take heroin
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not to relapse and not to take heroin
+again
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again
+and so they get at regular intervals
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so they get at regular intervals
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so they get at regular intervals
+they get bop doses
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they get bop doses
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they get bop doses
+now it would be sort of unethical to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now it would be sort of unethical to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now it would be sort of unethical to
+withhold people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+withhold people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+withhold people
+on these doses but what the experiment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on these doses but what the experiment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on these doses but what the experiment
+was doing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was doing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was doing
+and it's still sort of ethically
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it's still sort of ethically
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it's still sort of ethically
+ethically perhaps tricky but what they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethically perhaps tricky but what they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethically perhaps tricky but what they
+were asking for is people's willingness
+
+ align:start position:0%
+were asking for is people's willingness
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+were asking for is people's willingness
+to pay for a second dose of heroin
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to pay for a second dose of heroin
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to pay for a second dose of heroin
+of the ap the heroin substitute so all
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the ap the heroin substitute so all
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the ap the heroin substitute so all
+individuals in the experiments
+
+ align:start position:0%
+individuals in the experiments
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+individuals in the experiments
+regularly regularly receive their single
+
+ align:start position:0%
+regularly regularly receive their single
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+regularly regularly receive their single
+dose of bop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dose of bop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dose of bop
+and um and then there's also like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and um and then there's also like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and um and then there's also like
+an additional dose they could get and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+an additional dose they could get and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+an additional dose they could get and
+then there was some variation in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then there was some variation in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then there was some variation in the
+experiment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experiment
+what was the duration there was
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what was the duration there was
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what was the duration there was
+variation in the state of deprivation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation in the state of deprivation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation in the state of deprivation
+so um people were either asking all the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so um people were either asking all the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so um people were either asking all the
+questions about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+questions about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+questions about
+our willingness to pay for a second dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our willingness to pay for a second dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our willingness to pay for a second dose
+of vop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of vop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of vop
+right everybody always got the first
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right everybody always got the first
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right everybody always got the first
+those but then uh there was some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those but then uh there was some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those but then uh there was some
+variation in timing for some people um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation in timing for some people um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation in timing for some people um
+uh the more deprived condition
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the more deprived condition
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the more deprived condition
+people ask about their willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people ask about their willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people ask about their willingness to
+pay for a second dose two hours before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose two hours before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose two hours before
+the scheduled first those
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the scheduled first those
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the scheduled first those
+and the last deprived people were asked
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the last deprived people were asked
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the last deprived people were asked
+like right after the scheduled first
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like right after the scheduled first
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like right after the scheduled first
+stones
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stones
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stones
+again everybody's getting a first close
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again everybody's getting a first close
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again everybody's getting a first close
+and we're asking about willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and we're asking about willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and we're asking about willingness to
+pay for a second dose otus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose otus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for a second dose otus
+some people ask about this two hours
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some people ask about this two hours
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some people ask about this two hours
+before the scheduled first dose when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before the scheduled first dose when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before the scheduled first dose when
+they're really sort of deprived and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're really sort of deprived and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're really sort of deprived and
+craving when they really want their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+craving when they really want their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+craving when they really want their
+first dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+first dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+first dose
+and others are asked when they're less
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and others are asked when they're less
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and others are asked when they're less
+deprived
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived
+right after the scheduled first stops
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right after the scheduled first stops
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right after the scheduled first stops
+notice that the second dose is always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that the second dose is always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that the second dose is always
+held constant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+held constant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+held constant
+so everybody always gets the first dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so everybody always gets the first dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so everybody always gets the first dose
+and the second dose is held constant in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the second dose is held constant in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the second dose is held constant in
+the future at least in those kinds of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future at least in those kinds of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future at least in those kinds of
+questions
+
+ align:start position:0%
+questions
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+questions
+so really the willingness to pay should
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so really the willingness to pay should
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so really the willingness to pay should
+not depend on your current state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not depend on your current state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not depend on your current state
+right in the future you're going to get
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right in the future you're going to get
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right in the future you're going to get
+a second dose which is once you have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a second dose which is once you have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a second dose which is once you have
+already gotten the first dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+already gotten the first dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+already gotten the first dose
+so like whether you i ask you like two
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so like whether you i ask you like two
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so like whether you i ask you like two
+hours before or right after your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hours before or right after your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hours before or right after your
+schedule goes through
+
+ align:start position:0%
+schedule goes through
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+schedule goes through
+will have more effect on your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will have more effect on your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will have more effect on your
+willingness to pay in the future because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay in the future because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay in the future because
+that's gonna
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's gonna
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's gonna
+that experience is held fixed and you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that experience is held fixed and you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that experience is held fixed and you
+always get the first bills
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always get the first bills
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always get the first bills
+now they also asked varied in addition
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now they also asked varied in addition
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now they also asked varied in addition
+the timing of a potential second dose so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the timing of a potential second dose so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the timing of a potential second dose so
+sometimes the second dose was later on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes the second dose was later on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes the second dose was later on
+the same day and sometimes the second
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the same day and sometimes the second
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the same day and sometimes the second
+dose was
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dose was
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dose was
+during the next week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+now what do badger badger adele find
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what do badger badger adele find
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what do badger badger adele find
+they find that people's willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they find that people's willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they find that people's willingness to
+pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay
+very systematically with the state and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very systematically with the state and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very systematically with the state and
+the deadline
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the deadline
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the deadline
+what's the state here the state is a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's the state here the state is a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's the state here the state is a
+state of deprivation whether people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state of deprivation whether people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state of deprivation whether people are
+more deprived or less deprived
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more deprived or less deprived
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more deprived or less deprived
+and then the timing is essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then the timing is essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then the timing is essentially
+either about today versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+either about today versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+either about today versus
+next week now the median willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+next week now the median willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+next week now the median willingness to
+pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay
+for the second dose later today is fifty
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the second dose later today is fifty
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the second dose later today is fifty
+dollars in the satiated state and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars in the satiated state and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars in the satiated state and
+seventy five dollars in the deprived
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seventy five dollars in the deprived
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seventy five dollars in the deprived
+state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state
+now we're gonna um get back to this how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now we're gonna um get back to this how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now we're gonna um get back to this how
+we think about this how we can explain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we think about this how we can explain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we think about this how we can explain
+this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this
+but basically the way that we explain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but basically the way that we explain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but basically the way that we explain
+this is that in the deprived state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this is that in the deprived state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this is that in the deprived state
+people's willingness to pay um is higher
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's willingness to pay um is higher
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's willingness to pay um is higher
+um because they really really want like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um because they really really want like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um because they really really want like
+a first dose so people's willingness to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a first dose so people's willingness to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a first dose so people's willingness to
+pay for the first dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for the first dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pay for the first dose
+is high in the price state and it's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is high in the price state and it's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is high in the price state and it's
+lower in the satiated state because i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lower in the satiated state because i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lower in the satiated state because i
+already have the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+already have the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+already have the
+or the sorry people's willingness to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or the sorry people's willingness to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or the sorry people's willingness to pay
+for any additional dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for any additional dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for any additional dose
+is high in the deprived state because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is high in the deprived state because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is high in the deprived state because
+they haven't even gotten the first those
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they haven't even gotten the first those
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they haven't even gotten the first those
+and it's lower on in the associated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it's lower on in the associated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it's lower on in the associated
+state but what people seem to be doing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state but what people seem to be doing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state but what people seem to be doing
+now they seem to have like a hard time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now they seem to have like a hard time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now they seem to have like a hard time
+imagining their utility in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagining their utility in the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagining their utility in the future
+that is to say in the future both people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say in the future both people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say in the future both people
+will be satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be satiated
+so what's happening here is that people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so what's happening here is that people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so what's happening here is that people
+when people are in the deprived state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when people are in the deprived state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when people are in the deprived state
+they really really want bup
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they really really want bup
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they really really want bup
+and they're willing to pay more than
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they're willing to pay more than
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they're willing to pay more than
+when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when
+in the satiated state again for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the satiated state again for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the satiated state again for the
+second dose of the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second dose of the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second dose of the future
+now there's also some evidence of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's also some evidence of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's also some evidence of
+willingness to pay for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay for the
+second dose next week and again people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second dose next week and again people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second dose next week and again people's
+willingness to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay
+and so the previous one was later today
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the previous one was later today
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the previous one was later today
+uh now it's for the next week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh now it's for the next week
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh now it's for the next week
+people's willingness to pay and the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's willingness to pay and the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's willingness to pay and the
+deprived state is uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived state is uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived state is uh
+sixty dollars in the satiated state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sixty dollars in the satiated state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sixty dollars in the satiated state
+that's thirty five dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's thirty five dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's thirty five dollars
+so um again people's willingness to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so um again people's willingness to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so um again people's willingness to pay
+us
+
+ align:start position:0%
+us
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+us
+higher in the deprived state that is to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+higher in the deprived state that is to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+higher in the deprived state that is to
+say when in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+say when in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+say when in
+the private state really really really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the private state really really really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the private state really really really
+people want to be a p
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people want to be a p
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people want to be a p
+and they cannot really imagine that in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they cannot really imagine that in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they cannot really imagine that in
+the next week um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the next week um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the next week um
+people's uh when they're satiated there
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's uh when they're satiated there
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's uh when they're satiated there
+they will actually
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will actually
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will actually
+want bop um less to be clear
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want bop um less to be clear
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want bop um less to be clear
+in both the um uh the first one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in both the um uh the first one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in both the um uh the first one
+the late those is later today and when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the late those is later today and when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the late those is later today and when
+it doses next week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it doses next week
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it doses next week
+uh it'll always be the case that people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh it'll always be the case that people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh it'll always be the case that people
+have already received the first date
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have already received the first date
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have already received the first date
+those and then the question is always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those and then the question is always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those and then the question is always
+about what's your willingness to pay to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about what's your willingness to pay to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about what's your willingness to pay to
+receive a second dose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+receive a second dose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+receive a second dose
+so when they're in the future they will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when they're in the future they will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when they're in the future they will
+always be satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always be satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always be satiated
+but people in the deprived states seem
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people in the deprived states seem
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people in the deprived states seem
+to be reacting or seem to be behaving as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be reacting or seem to be behaving as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be reacting or seem to be behaving as
+if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if
+in the future they would also be in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future they would also be in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future they would also be in the
+deprived state but of course people will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived state but of course people will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deprived state but of course people will
+be in the satiated state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be in the satiated state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be in the satiated state
+so people seem to overestimate uh when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people seem to overestimate uh when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people seem to overestimate uh when
+they're under the private set how much
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're under the private set how much
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're under the private set how much
+they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they
+would like the second dose in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would like the second dose in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would like the second dose in the
+satiated state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated state
+in the future now here's another example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future now here's another example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future now here's another example
+by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by
+shelling and shelling is a beautiful
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shelling and shelling is a beautiful
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shelling and shelling is a beautiful
+writer
+
+ align:start position:0%
+writer
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+writer
+in economics he's one of the best
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in economics he's one of the best
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in economics he's one of the best
+writers that economics has granted
+
+ align:start position:0%
+writers that economics has granted
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+writers that economics has granted
+there's lots of bad writing in economics
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's lots of bad writing in economics
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's lots of bad writing in economics
+but if you want to write some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but if you want to write some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but if you want to write some
+read some beautiful writing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+read some beautiful writing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+read some beautiful writing
+by an economist shelling has a bunch of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by an economist shelling has a bunch of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by an economist shelling has a bunch of
+different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different
+books that are really nice to read and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+books that are really nice to read and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+books that are really nice to read and
+essays that are really beautiful
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essays that are really beautiful
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essays that are really beautiful
+now in his paper 1984
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in his paper 1984
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in his paper 1984
+um he talks briefly about a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um he talks briefly about a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um he talks briefly about a
+controversial question which is the use
+
+ align:start position:0%
+controversial question which is the use
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+controversial question which is the use
+of anesthesia during childbirth
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of anesthesia during childbirth
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of anesthesia during childbirth
+and why is that controversial well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and why is that controversial well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and why is that controversial well
+anesthesia is reducing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia is reducing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia is reducing
+the mother's pain during during
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the mother's pain during during
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the mother's pain during during
+childbirth
+
+ align:start position:0%
+childbirth
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+childbirth
+but there's the potential for some side
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but there's the potential for some side
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but there's the potential for some side
+effects there's also the potential that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+effects there's also the potential that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+effects there's also the potential that
+people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+uh experience is is different and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh experience is is different and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh experience is is different and
+for both of those reasons some people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for both of those reasons some people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for both of those reasons some people
+argue that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+argue that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+argue that
+anesthesia is not warranted and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia is not warranted and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia is not warranted and
+decide not to do that now in many cases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decide not to do that now in many cases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decide not to do that now in many cases
+people's preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's preferences
+change predictably over time first
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change predictably over time first
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change predictably over time first
+ex-ante before the woman gives
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ex-ante before the woman gives
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ex-ante before the woman gives
+birth many women prefer not to use
+
+ align:start position:0%
+birth many women prefer not to use
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+birth many women prefer not to use
+anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia
+once there are in excruciating pain they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+once there are in excruciating pain they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+once there are in excruciating pain they
+request
+
+ align:start position:0%
+request
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+request
+they request anesthesia from their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they request anesthesia from their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they request anesthesia from their
+doctor
+
+ align:start position:0%
+doctor
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+doctor
+and then if they actually get the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then if they actually get the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then if they actually get the
+anesthesia from the doctor
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia from the doctor
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia from the doctor
+exposed after um the child is born
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exposed after um the child is born
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exposed after um the child is born
+they regret their choice they say i wish
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they regret their choice they say i wish
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they regret their choice they say i wish
+i hadn't gotten anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i hadn't gotten anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i hadn't gotten anesthesia
+now that pattern holds even for women
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now that pattern holds even for women
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now that pattern holds even for women
+who have given birth before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who have given birth before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who have given birth before
+and it causes or it leads to a bunch of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it causes or it leads to a bunch of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and it causes or it leads to a bunch of
+ethical dilemmas and legal issues
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethical dilemmas and legal issues
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ethical dilemmas and legal issues
+for example to which patient is a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example to which patient is a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example to which patient is a
+physician obligated the one asking for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+physician obligated the one asking for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+physician obligated the one asking for
+anesthesia or the one who asked that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia or the one who asked that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia or the one who asked that
+that it be what would help right the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that it be what would help right the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that it be what would help right the
+person told the doctor like i really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person told the doctor like i really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person told the doctor like i really
+really do not want any anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really do not want any anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really do not want any anesthesia
+even if i ask you later please do not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+even if i ask you later please do not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+even if i ask you later please do not
+give me anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give me anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give me anesthesia
+but then of course the person then yells
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then of course the person then yells
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then of course the person then yells
+at the doctor and says i really really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the doctor and says i really really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the doctor and says i really really
+want anesthesia give me anesthesia right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want anesthesia give me anesthesia right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want anesthesia give me anesthesia right
+now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+and so there's essentially different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so there's essentially different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so there's essentially different
+there's preference reversals people seem
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's preference reversals people seem
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's preference reversals people seem
+to want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to want
+different things at different points in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different things at different points in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different things at different points in
+time and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time and
+uh the doctor no you know can only make
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the doctor no you know can only make
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the doctor no you know can only make
+one of these two people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one of these two people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one of these two people
+happy and so no matter what the doctor
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happy and so no matter what the doctor
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happy and so no matter what the doctor
+does either if the person gets and just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does either if the person gets and just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does either if the person gets and just
+gives the person anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gives the person anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gives the person anesthesia
+then person number two in my list here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then person number two in my list here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then person number two in my list here
+above is going to be happy but person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+above is going to be happy but person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+above is going to be happy but person
+number one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+number one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+number one
+person number three are unhappy or the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person number three are unhappy or the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person number three are unhappy or the
+person withholds anesthesia and then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person withholds anesthesia and then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person withholds anesthesia and then
+person number two is unhappy so either
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person number two is unhappy so either
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person number two is unhappy so either
+way the doctor cannot satisfy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+way the doctor cannot satisfy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+way the doctor cannot satisfy
+uh these different selves over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh these different selves over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh these different selves over time
+now can the physician enter a contract
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now can the physician enter a contract
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now can the physician enter a contract
+with the patient ex-ante before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with the patient ex-ante before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with the patient ex-ante before
+is it is it possible to have a legally
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is it is it possible to have a legally
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is it is it possible to have a legally
+binding contract here when he says like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+binding contract here when he says like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+binding contract here when he says like
+you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know
+he or she says i'm not going to give any
+
+ align:start position:0%
+he or she says i'm not going to give any
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+he or she says i'm not going to give any
+anesthesia and you told me so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia and you told me so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia and you told me so
+um do we want policies that such
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um do we want policies that such
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um do we want policies that such
+contracts
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contracts
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contracts
+make such contracts possible is that an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+make such contracts possible is that an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+make such contracts possible is that an
+is that a desirable thing to do is it a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is that a desirable thing to do is it a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is that a desirable thing to do is it a
+legally
+
+ align:start position:0%
+legally
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+legally
+required thing to do potentially or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+required thing to do potentially or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+required thing to do potentially or
+possible to require this legally
+
+ align:start position:0%
+possible to require this legally
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+possible to require this legally
+i'm not sure but the point here really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm not sure but the point here really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm not sure but the point here really
+is that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is that
+um there is um uh some misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there is um uh some misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there is um uh some misprediction
+going on here right ex-ante the the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going on here right ex-ante the the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going on here right ex-ante the the
+person says well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person says well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person says well
+if i'm in pain i will be fine i'm not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if i'm in pain i will be fine i'm not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if i'm in pain i will be fine i'm not
+gonna need anesthesia
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gonna need anesthesia
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gonna need anesthesia
+but then of course when the person is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then of course when the person is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then of course when the person is
+actually in pain the person wants
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually in pain the person wants
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually in pain the person wants
+anesthesia so essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia so essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia so essentially
+people seem to mispredict their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to mispredict their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to mispredict their
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+when they're in pain and that leads to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're in pain and that leads to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're in pain and that leads to
+all sorts of trouble here i really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all sorts of trouble here i really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all sorts of trouble here i really
+recommend you read the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recommend you read the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recommend you read the
+paper by shelling that's on the course
+
+ align:start position:0%
+paper by shelling that's on the course
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+paper by shelling that's on the course
+website if you want to sort of think
+
+ align:start position:0%
+website if you want to sort of think
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+website if you want to sort of think
+about this a little bit more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about this a little bit more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about this a little bit more
+now so far um we talked about that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now so far um we talked about that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now so far um we talked about that
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+change predictably due to changes in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change predictably due to changes in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+change predictably due to changes in
+underlying states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying states
+now what are those those states it could
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what are those those states it could
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what are those those states it could
+be like pain hunger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be like pain hunger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be like pain hunger
+sleep and so on now there's additional
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep and so on now there's additional
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep and so on now there's additional
+status factors that people make
+
+ align:start position:0%
+status factors that people make
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+status factors that people make
+systematic mistakes at predicting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+systematic mistakes at predicting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+systematic mistakes at predicting
+preference changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference changes
+right so people not only is it that your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right so people not only is it that your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right so people not only is it that your
+preferences are different when you're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences are different when you're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences are different when you're
+tired versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tired versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tired versus
+not but people are also systematically
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not but people are also systematically
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not but people are also systematically
+mispredicting that preference change
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredicting that preference change
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredicting that preference change
+now what is production production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what is production production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what is production production bias
+to be clear it's the fact that people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be clear it's the fact that people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be clear it's the fact that people
+under
+
+ align:start position:0%
+under
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+under
+appreciate changes in their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+appreciate changes in their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+appreciate changes in their preferences
+projecting their current preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projecting their current preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projecting their current preferences
+onto future preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+onto future preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+onto future preferences
+so production bias to be clear is not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so production bias to be clear is not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so production bias to be clear is not
+just some random misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just some random misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just some random misprediction
+but a misprediction with a systematic
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but a misprediction with a systematic
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but a misprediction with a systematic
+direction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction
+so people seem to understand the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people seem to understand the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people seem to understand the
+direction of preference change but not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction of preference change but not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction of preference change but not
+the magnitude
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the magnitude
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the magnitude
+that is to say when people are hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say when people are hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say when people are hungry
+and think about like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and think about like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and think about like
+how it's gonna feel when they're not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it's gonna feel when they're not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it's gonna feel when they're not
+hungry anymore they kind of understand
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry anymore they kind of understand
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry anymore they kind of understand
+that eventually they will not be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that eventually they will not be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that eventually they will not be hungry
+and that maybe you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that maybe you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that maybe you know
+suppose you're really hungry and really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose you're really hungry and really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose you're really hungry and really
+want potato chips you sort of understand
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want potato chips you sort of understand
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want potato chips you sort of understand
+that you don't really want that many
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you don't really want that many
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you don't really want that many
+potato chips um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potato chips um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potato chips um
+when you're full nevertheless when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when you're full nevertheless when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when you're full nevertheless when
+people are hungry they buy like 10 bags
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are hungry they buy like 10 bags
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are hungry they buy like 10 bags
+of potato chips as if they were like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of potato chips as if they were like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of potato chips as if they were like
+hungry at least for like half of their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry at least for like half of their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry at least for like half of their
+life even though they're just you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life even though they're just you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life even though they're just you know
+they're going to be hungry for the next
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're going to be hungry for the next
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're going to be hungry for the next
+hour or two because then they're going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hour or two because then they're going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hour or two because then they're going
+to go home and go eat um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to go home and go eat um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to go home and go eat um
+and so on so people seem to understand
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so on so people seem to understand
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so on so people seem to understand
+the direction of people's preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the direction of people's preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the direction of people's preferences
+but not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but not
+the magnitude now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+the under appreciation of the effects of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the under appreciation of the effects of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the under appreciation of the effects of
+hunger and preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger and preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger and preferences
+is you know perhaps not the most
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is you know perhaps not the most
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is you know perhaps not the most
+economically important
+
+ align:start position:0%
+economically important
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+economically important
+um uh part of of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh part of of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh part of of
+production buyers be the most important
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production buyers be the most important
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production buyers be the most important
+application but there's two reasons to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+application but there's two reasons to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+application but there's two reasons to
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+
+ align:start position:0%
+consider this evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consider this evidence
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+
+ align:start position:0%
+but one it's perhaps the clearest
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but one it's perhaps the clearest
+evidence of production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias
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+
+ align:start position:0%
+second people had lots of experience
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second people had lots of experience
+with changes in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with changes in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with changes in
+their levels of hunger so any
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their levels of hunger so any
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their levels of hunger so any
+misprediction isn't due to the lack of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction isn't due to the lack of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction isn't due to the lack of
+opportunity to learn really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+opportunity to learn really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+opportunity to learn really
+one should have probably learned uh this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one should have probably learned uh this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one should have probably learned uh this
+over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time
+for some other instances where you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for some other instances where you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for some other instances where you know
+um this is only for example if you have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this is only for example if you have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this is only for example if you have
+lots of physical pain or for childbirth
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lots of physical pain or for childbirth
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lots of physical pain or for childbirth
+for example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example
+you might say well um uh you know that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might say well um uh you know that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might say well um uh you know that
+seems to be like uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to be like uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+seems to be like uh
+sometimes even one-in-a-lifetime
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes even one-in-a-lifetime
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes even one-in-a-lifetime
+experience where like people really um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experience where like people really um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experience where like people really um
+it's sort of understandable that people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's sort of understandable that people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's sort of understandable that people
+mispredict uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict uh
+uh their preferences when they be an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh their preferences when they be an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh their preferences when they be an
+excitement they are in excruciating pain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+excitement they are in excruciating pain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+excitement they are in excruciating pain
+um but that's sort of understandable
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but that's sort of understandable
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but that's sort of understandable
+because you haven't experienced it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you haven't experienced it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you haven't experienced it
+before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before
+and even you know for somebody a mother
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and even you know for somebody a mother
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and even you know for somebody a mother
+who has given
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who has given
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who has given
+birth to a child before that mother
+
+ align:start position:0%
+birth to a child before that mother
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+birth to a child before that mother
+might sort of just not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might sort of just not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might sort of just not
+misremember to some degree but when it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misremember to some degree but when it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misremember to some degree but when it
+comes to hunger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+comes to hunger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+comes to hunger
+people have been hungry so many times
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people have been hungry so many times
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people have been hungry so many times
+and full and so on so like really you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and full and so on so like really you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and full and so on so like really you
+have lots and lots of opportunities to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have lots and lots of opportunities to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have lots and lots of opportunities to
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+
+ align:start position:0%
+learn
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+learn
+what your preferences are when you're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what your preferences are when you're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what your preferences are when you're
+hungry um versus not so really it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry um versus not so really it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry um versus not so really it
+shouldn't be about a lack of opportunity
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shouldn't be about a lack of opportunity
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shouldn't be about a lack of opportunity
+to learn now people buy more on an empty
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to learn now people buy more on an empty
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to learn now people buy more on an empty
+stomach that can be interpreted as a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stomach that can be interpreted as a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stomach that can be interpreted as a
+minus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+minus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+minus
+beneficial production bias hungry people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+beneficial production bias hungry people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+beneficial production bias hungry people
+act as if their future taste for food
+
+ align:start position:0%
+act as if their future taste for food
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+act as if their future taste for food
+will reflect their current hunger at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will reflect their current hunger at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will reflect their current hunger at
+least to some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+least to some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+least to some
+degree or more so than it actually does
+
+ align:start position:0%
+degree or more so than it actually does
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+degree or more so than it actually does
+but it's not completely clean evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but it's not completely clean evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but it's not completely clean evidence
+of production bias because there could
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of production bias because there could
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of production bias because there could
+be always other things going on for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be always other things going on for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be always other things going on for
+example if you're really hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example if you're really hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example if you're really hungry
+um you might focus uh some things might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you might focus uh some things might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you might focus uh some things might
+be more salient to you and you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be more salient to you and you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be more salient to you and you know
+there you might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there you might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there you might
+sort of buy certain things more because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of buy certain things more because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of buy certain things more because
+um you pay more attention for example to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you pay more attention for example to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you pay more attention for example to
+potato chips and really sort of learn
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potato chips and really sort of learn
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potato chips and really sort of learn
+how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how
+exciting potato chips are and so on but
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exciting potato chips are and so on but
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exciting potato chips are and so on but
+um let's just go with hunger um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um let's just go with hunger um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um let's just go with hunger um
+for now there's lots of other evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for now there's lots of other evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for now there's lots of other evidence
+of production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of production bias
+in addition to to the hunger example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in addition to to the hunger example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in addition to to the hunger example
+now remember the paper on that we
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now remember the paper on that we
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now remember the paper on that we
+discussed on food choices by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discussed on food choices by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discussed on food choices by
+wheat and van loyvan this is the paper
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wheat and van loyvan this is the paper
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wheat and van loyvan this is the paper
+where office workers are asked to choose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where office workers are asked to choose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where office workers are asked to choose
+between a healthy snack and an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between a healthy snack and an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between a healthy snack and an
+unhealthy snack now so far we have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snack now so far we have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snack now so far we have
+looked at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+looked at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+looked at
+um this as a piece of evidence for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this as a piece of evidence for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um this as a piece of evidence for
+present bias we were looking at when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias we were looking at when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias we were looking at when
+people are choosing for the present
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are choosing for the present
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are choosing for the present
+right now versus when they choose for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now versus when they choose for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now versus when they choose for
+the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future
+do people make more uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do people make more uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do people make more uh
+unhealthy choices when they choose for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy choices when they choose for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy choices when they choose for
+the present that is to say this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the present that is to say this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the present that is to say this
+nice fact that we found was that when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+nice fact that we found was that when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+nice fact that we found was that when
+people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are
+choosing snacks for the future they were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choosing snacks for the future they were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choosing snacks for the future they were
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+quite likely to choose healthy snacks
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite likely to choose healthy snacks
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite likely to choose healthy snacks
+you know you choose salad for the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know you choose salad for the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know you choose salad for the future
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+as your um snack in the afternoon and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as your um snack in the afternoon and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as your um snack in the afternoon and
+when then and you ask again like right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when then and you ask again like right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when then and you ask again like right
+now or today what would you like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now or today what would you like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now or today what would you like
+people to seem to switch their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people to seem to switch their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people to seem to switch their
+preferences towards
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences towards
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences towards
+unhealthy snacks that rather have like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snacks that rather have like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snacks that rather have like
+um chocolates
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um chocolates
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um chocolates
+and so we interpreted that at the time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so we interpreted that at the time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so we interpreted that at the time
+as evidence of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as evidence of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as evidence of
+present bias and surely it seems like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias and surely it seems like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias and surely it seems like
+that is evidence of present bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is evidence of present bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is evidence of present bias
+now in addition now we're going to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in addition now we're going to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in addition now we're going to
+consider variation in the timing of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consider variation in the timing of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consider variation in the timing of
+those choices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those choices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those choices
+so some people were asked when they were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so some people were asked when they were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so some people were asked when they were
+hungry late in the afternoon
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry late in the afternoon
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry late in the afternoon
+others were asked when they were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+others were asked when they were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+others were asked when they were
+satiated or arguably satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated or arguably satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated or arguably satiated
+immediately after lunch and then the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch and then the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch and then the
+snacks were to be received in one week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snacks were to be received in one week
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snacks were to be received in one week
+so that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that's
+how constant timing otherwise the timing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how constant timing otherwise the timing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how constant timing otherwise the timing
+is held constant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is held constant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is held constant
+so we're always going to look at choices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so we're always going to look at choices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so we're always going to look at choices
+for snacks to be received in one week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+some of the uh in some of the cases the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of the uh in some of the cases the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of the uh in some of the cases the
+snacks were uh to be received when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snacks were uh to be received when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snacks were uh to be received when
+people were hungry or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people were hungry or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people were hungry or
+likely hungry late in the afternoon in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likely hungry late in the afternoon in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likely hungry late in the afternoon in
+some other cases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some other cases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some other cases
+um the snacks were received when people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the snacks were received when people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the snacks were received when people
+were satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+were satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+were satiated
+immediately after lunch okay so there's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch okay so there's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch okay so there's
+like four cases here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like four cases here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like four cases here
+there's the timing of choice either
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's the timing of choice either
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's the timing of choice either
+people ask where they're hungry versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people ask where they're hungry versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people ask where they're hungry versus
+not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not
+um and then the timing of the receipt of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and then the timing of the receipt of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and then the timing of the receipt of
+the snack which is when they were hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the snack which is when they were hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the snack which is when they were hungry
+versus not the question now is are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+versus not the question now is are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+versus not the question now is are
+hungry people now good or bad at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry people now good or bad at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry people now good or bad at
+predicting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting
+their preferences when they're satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences when they're satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences when they're satiated
+and or satiated people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and or satiated people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and or satiated people
+are good or bad when they're um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are good or bad when they're um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are good or bad when they're um
+predicting their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting their preferences
+when they're hungry sort of in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're hungry sort of in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're hungry sort of in the
+different state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different state
+okay so we're going to interpret here um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so we're going to interpret here um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so we're going to interpret here um
+the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+so here's a table i'm from reading van
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so here's a table i'm from reading van
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so here's a table i'm from reading van
+loyden table number one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+loyden table number one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+loyden table number one
+uh it's a bit of a sort of confusing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh it's a bit of a sort of confusing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh it's a bit of a sort of confusing
+table um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+table um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+table um
+for no good reason uh let me just walk
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for no good reason uh let me just walk
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for no good reason uh let me just walk
+you very
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you very
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you very
+quickly through that table so the rows
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quickly through that table so the rows
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quickly through that table so the rows
+are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are
+the current hunger and the columns are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the current hunger and the columns are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the current hunger and the columns are
+future hunger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future hunger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future hunger
+so the first row is when people were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the first row is when people were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the first row is when people were
+asked when they were hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asked when they were hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asked when they were hungry
+so this is like late in the afternoon
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so this is like late in the afternoon
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so this is like late in the afternoon
+the second row is people were asked when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the second row is people were asked when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the second row is people were asked when
+they were satiated that's like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were satiated that's like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were satiated that's like
+um right after lunch and then the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um right after lunch and then the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um right after lunch and then the
+columns are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+columns are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+columns are
+um again remember all of the choices are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um again remember all of the choices are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um again remember all of the choices are
+for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for
+next week so the first column is choices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+next week so the first column is choices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+next week so the first column is choices
+for when people were um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for when people were um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for when people were um
+hungry that's late in the afternoon and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry that's late in the afternoon and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry that's late in the afternoon and
+the second column is when people were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the second column is when people were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the second column is when people were
+satiated that's right after lunch
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated that's right after lunch
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated that's right after lunch
+remember again
+
+ align:start position:0%
+remember again
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+remember again
+all choices are for next weeks or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all choices are for next weeks or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+all choices are for next weeks or
+for one week in the future now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for one week in the future now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for one week in the future now
+we can interpret now the main diagonal
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we can interpret now the main diagonal
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we can interpret now the main diagonal
+of this table
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of this table
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of this table
+as reflecting people's true preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as reflecting people's true preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as reflecting people's true preferences
+that is to say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say
+here's no projection bias here people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here's no projection bias here people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here's no projection bias here people
+are asked when hungry about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are asked when hungry about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are asked when hungry about
+to predict what they wanted or to say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to predict what they wanted or to say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to predict what they wanted or to say
+what they wanted
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what they wanted
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what they wanted
+in the future when they were likely
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future when they were likely
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future when they were likely
+going to be hungry as well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to be hungry as well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to be hungry as well
+that is to say 78 of people are um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say 78 of people are um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say 78 of people are um
+choosing an unhealthy snack for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choosing an unhealthy snack for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choosing an unhealthy snack for the
+future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+um when they're hungry so that's in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're hungry so that's in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're hungry so that's in the
+late afternoon
+
+ align:start position:0%
+late afternoon
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+late afternoon
+for the future case when they're in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the future case when they're in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the future case when they're in the
+late afternoon
+
+ align:start position:0%
+late afternoon
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+late afternoon
+in contrast only 26 percent of people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in contrast only 26 percent of people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in contrast only 26 percent of people
+choose
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose
+um uh the unhealthy snack when they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh the unhealthy snack when they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh the unhealthy snack when they're
+satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated
+that is um right after lunch uh for when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is um right after lunch uh for when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is um right after lunch uh for when
+the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+um uh uh the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh uh the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh uh the
+snack will be delivered in one week
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack will be delivered in one week
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack will be delivered in one week
+right after lunch
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right after lunch
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right after lunch
+right so there's here's no production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right so there's here's no production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right so there's here's no production
+bias here because essentially this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias here because essentially this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias here because essentially this
+underlying state hunger is held constant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying state hunger is held constant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underlying state hunger is held constant
+hungry people uh predict them for when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry people uh predict them for when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry people uh predict them for when
+they're hungry or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're hungry or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're hungry or
+asking what they want when they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking what they want when they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking what they want when they're
+hungry 78
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry 78
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry 78
+of people think they want unhealthy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people think they want unhealthy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people think they want unhealthy
+stuff and um uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stuff and um uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stuff and um uh
+again satiated people 26 of people say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again satiated people 26 of people say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again satiated people 26 of people say
+um they want unhealthy stuff so 74 of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they want unhealthy stuff so 74 of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um they want unhealthy stuff so 74 of
+people say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people say
+they want the healthy snack in contrast
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want the healthy snack in contrast
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want the healthy snack in contrast
+when they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're
+satiated okay so again that's that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated okay so again that's that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated okay so again that's that's
+what's written here late in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's written here late in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's written here late in the
+afternoon when people are hungry 78
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afternoon when people are hungry 78
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+afternoon when people are hungry 78
+percent of people choose the unhealthy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+percent of people choose the unhealthy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+percent of people choose the unhealthy
+snack for the late afternoon when they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack for the late afternoon when they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack for the late afternoon when they
+will be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be hungry
+immediately after lunch when they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch when they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch when they're
+satiated 26 percent of people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated 26 percent of people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated 26 percent of people
+choose the unhealthy snack for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose the unhealthy snack for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose the unhealthy snack for
+immediately after lunch when they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch when they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immediately after lunch when they
+will be satiated now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be satiated now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be satiated now
+then what we see here is um uh uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then what we see here is um uh uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then what we see here is um uh uh
+the the entries that are off the main
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the the entries that are off the main
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the the entries that are off the main
+diagonal
+
+ align:start position:0%
+diagonal
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+diagonal
+those data fit the pattern of projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those data fit the pattern of projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those data fit the pattern of projection
+bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+now what do i mean by that let's look
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what do i mean by that let's look
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what do i mean by that let's look
+first that when people who are hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+first that when people who are hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+first that when people who are hungry
+but expect to be satiated that is the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but expect to be satiated that is the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but expect to be satiated that is the
+um the the first row here current uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the the first row here current uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the the first row here current uh
+hunger is hungry that's essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger is hungry that's essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger is hungry that's essentially
+people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ask late in the afternoon or think about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ask late in the afternoon or think about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ask late in the afternoon or think about
+this as being lightly hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this as being lightly hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this as being lightly hungry
+and they ask about like when uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they ask about like when uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they ask about like when uh
+what do they want when they are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what do they want when they are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what do they want when they are
+um when they're satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're satiated
+that is like right after um lunch
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is like right after um lunch
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is like right after um lunch
+now remember um when people were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now remember um when people were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now remember um when people were
+satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated
+26 of people said they wanted an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+26 of people said they wanted an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+26 of people said they wanted an
+unhealthy snack
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snack
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unhealthy snack
+now when people are hungry 42 of people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now when people are hungry 42 of people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now when people are hungry 42 of people
+say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+say
+they want an unhealthy snack so that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want an unhealthy snack so that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want an unhealthy snack so that
+fraction is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fraction is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fraction is
+higher so that is very much consistent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+higher so that is very much consistent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+higher so that is very much consistent
+with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with
+projection bias the reason being that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias the reason being that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias the reason being that
+when hungry when people are hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when hungry when people are hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when hungry when people are hungry
+um and say what they want for themselves
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and say what they want for themselves
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and say what they want for themselves
+um in the hungry state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um in the hungry state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um in the hungry state
+well 78 percent of people say they want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well 78 percent of people say they want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well 78 percent of people say they want
+the unhealthy snack
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the unhealthy snack
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the unhealthy snack
+if people did not have any production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if people did not have any production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if people did not have any production
+bias they really should be saying 26
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias they really should be saying 26
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias they really should be saying 26
+if you sort of believe that satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you sort of believe that satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you sort of believe that satiated
+people know best what they want when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people know best what they want when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people know best what they want when
+they beat
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they beat
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they beat
+when they will be satiated instead 42
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they will be satiated instead 42
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they will be satiated instead 42
+the higher fraction of people say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the higher fraction of people say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the higher fraction of people say
+they want um an unhealthy snack um or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want um an unhealthy snack um or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want um an unhealthy snack um or
+while when predicting or when when when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+while when predicting or when when when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+while when predicting or when when when
+i'm answering while they're hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm answering while they're hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm answering while they're hungry
+for when they would be satiated so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for when they would be satiated so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for when they would be satiated so
+people seem to understand the direction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to understand the direction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to understand the direction
+in which their tastes change as they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in which their tastes change as they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in which their tastes change as they
+become satiated
+
+ align:start position:0%
+become satiated
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+become satiated
+but they underestimate the magnitude of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but they underestimate the magnitude of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but they underestimate the magnitude of
+this change
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this change
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this change
+similarly people who are currently
+
+ align:start position:0%
+similarly people who are currently
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+similarly people who are currently
+satiated but expect to be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated but expect to be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satiated but expect to be hungry
+underestimate the effect of hunger on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimate the effect of hunger on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimate the effect of hunger on
+their preferences for unhealthy snacks
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences for unhealthy snacks
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences for unhealthy snacks
+remember um satiated people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+sorry hungry people um when they when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sorry hungry people um when they when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sorry hungry people um when they when
+they want to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they want to
+when they choose for uh next week when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they choose for uh next week when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they choose for uh next week when
+they will be hungry 78
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will be hungry 78
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will be hungry 78
+of people say um they want the unhealthy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people say um they want the unhealthy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people say um they want the unhealthy
+snack
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+snack
+now in contrast when they associated 56
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in contrast when they associated 56
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now in contrast when they associated 56
+of people choose the unhealthy snack so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people choose the unhealthy snack so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of people choose the unhealthy snack so
+again that fraction now deviates from
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again that fraction now deviates from
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again that fraction now deviates from
+the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the
+fraction when people are are hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fraction when people are are hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fraction when people are are hungry
+which is again
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is again
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is again
+consistent with people understand the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consistent with people understand the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consistent with people understand the
+direction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+direction
+in which tastes change as they become
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in which tastes change as they become
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in which tastes change as they become
+hungry but they underestimate the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry but they underestimate the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry but they underestimate the
+magnitude of this change
+
+ align:start position:0%
+magnitude of this change
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+magnitude of this change
+so satiated people think that when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so satiated people think that when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so satiated people think that when
+they're in the future hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're in the future hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're in the future hungry
+they will behave um at least a little
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will behave um at least a little
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they will behave um at least a little
+bit like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bit like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bit like
+as if they were satiated and hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as if they were satiated and hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as if they were satiated and hungry
+people seem to think that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to think that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to think that
+when they're satiated in the future they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're satiated in the future they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're satiated in the future they
+will still behave as if they were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will still behave as if they were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will still behave as if they were
+hungry notice that um uh that this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry notice that um uh that this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry notice that um uh that this
+misprediction is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction is
+partial so again so both the the 42
+
+ align:start position:0%
+partial so again so both the the 42
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+partial so again so both the the 42
+is in between the um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is in between the um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is in between the um
+the 42 is in between the uh 26 percent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the 42 is in between the uh 26 percent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the 42 is in between the uh 26 percent
+and the um let me see
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+the 42 is in between the 26 and the 78
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the 42 is in between the 26 and the 78
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the 42 is in between the 26 and the 78
+percent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+percent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+percent
+and again the 56 percent is between the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and again the 56 percent is between the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and again the 56 percent is between the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the 78 so there's essentially some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the 78 so there's essentially some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the 78 so there's essentially some
+partial misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+partial misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+partial misprediction
+um going on here now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um going on here now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um going on here now
+uh let me show you now a number of other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh let me show you now a number of other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh let me show you now a number of other
+examples of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples of
+um projection bias and then i'm gonna
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um projection bias and then i'm gonna
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um projection bias and then i'm gonna
+write down a little model that sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+write down a little model that sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+write down a little model that sort of
+captures um this intuition
+
+ align:start position:0%
+captures um this intuition
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+captures um this intuition
+or the iteration that's here so uh uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or the iteration that's here so uh uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or the iteration that's here so uh uh
+one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one
+another example is catalog orders this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+another example is catalog orders this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+another example is catalog orders this
+is condo nadal
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is condo nadal
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is condo nadal
+imagine um there's a cold evening it's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine um there's a cold evening it's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine um there's a cold evening it's
+really cold outside maybe you were just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really cold outside maybe you were just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really cold outside maybe you were just
+outside and so on and then you are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outside and so on and then you are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outside and so on and then you are
+online
+
+ align:start position:0%
+online
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+online
+shopping notice that in condolence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping notice that in condolence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping notice that in condolence
+really it's catalog orders
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really it's catalog orders
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really it's catalog orders
+and not online shopping because online
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and not online shopping because online
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and not online shopping because online
+shopping didn't quite exist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping didn't quite exist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shopping didn't quite exist
+at the time uh but any in any case you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the time uh but any in any case you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the time uh but any in any case you
+imagine you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine you
+buy online a warm uh jacket
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy online a warm uh jacket
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy online a warm uh jacket
+and again it's like really cold right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and again it's like really cold right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and again it's like really cold right
+now you really wish you had a warm
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now you really wish you had a warm
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now you really wish you had a warm
+jacket
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jacket
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jacket
+but then when the the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then when the the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then when the the
+warm jacket arrives it's 30 degrees
+
+ align:start position:0%
+warm jacket arrives it's 30 degrees
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+warm jacket arrives it's 30 degrees
+warmer um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+warmer um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+warmer um
+uh when that happens now um that could
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh when that happens now um that could
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh when that happens now um that could
+could not be or potentially is a mistake
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could not be or potentially is a mistake
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could not be or potentially is a mistake
+in particular if it's an unusually um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular if it's an unusually um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular if it's an unusually um
+cold um a day if people have production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold um a day if people have production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold um a day if people have production
+bias they might sort of think that well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias they might sort of think that well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias they might sort of think that well
+right now they really need like a warm
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now they really need like a warm
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now they really need like a warm
+jacket and they can't even imagine that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jacket and they can't even imagine that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jacket and they can't even imagine that
+they might not need this warm jacket
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might not need this warm jacket
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might not need this warm jacket
+anymore
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anymore
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anymore
+um in a few days from when it actually
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um in a few days from when it actually
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um in a few days from when it actually
+arrives from the order
+
+ align:start position:0%
+arrives from the order
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+arrives from the order
+and so the hypothesis is that production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the hypothesis is that production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the hypothesis is that production
+bias leads to an increase in purchases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias leads to an increase in purchases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias leads to an increase in purchases
+of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of
+cold water weather items on cold weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold water weather items on cold weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold water weather items on cold weather
+days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days
+and not only that but controlling for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and not only that but controlling for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and not only that but controlling for
+received day temperature the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+received day temperature the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+received day temperature the
+likelihood of returning a cold weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likelihood of returning a cold weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likelihood of returning a cold weather
+object is higher
+
+ align:start position:0%
+object is higher
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+object is higher
+when the day of ordering was cool so not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when the day of ordering was cool so not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when the day of ordering was cool so not
+only are buying people are buying more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only are buying people are buying more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only are buying people are buying more
+cold weather items on cold weather days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold weather items on cold weather days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold weather items on cold weather days
+that seems very reasonable because you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that seems very reasonable because you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that seems very reasonable because you
+know you might just say i always wanted
+
+ align:start position:0%
+know you might just say i always wanted
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+know you might just say i always wanted
+a jacket anyway it's really cold and i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a jacket anyway it's really cold and i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a jacket anyway it's really cold and i
+that just reminds me that i really need
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that just reminds me that i really need
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that just reminds me that i really need
+one or for example it's really rainy and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one or for example it's really rainy and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one or for example it's really rainy and
+you buy an umbrella because again you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you buy an umbrella because again you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you buy an umbrella because again you
+sort of just remember that you really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of just remember that you really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of just remember that you really
+needed one or maybe if you got it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+needed one or maybe if you got it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+needed one or maybe if you got it
+somewhere and so on but the telling part
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somewhere and so on but the telling part
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somewhere and so on but the telling part
+here is that the likelihood of returning
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here is that the likelihood of returning
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here is that the likelihood of returning
+the cold
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the cold
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the cold
+weather item object is higher when the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather item object is higher when the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather item object is higher when the
+day of ordering um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+day of ordering um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+day of ordering um
+was called right and that's very much
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was called right and that's very much
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+was called right and that's very much
+consistent with production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consistent with production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consistent with production bias
+people on cold weather days act as if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people on cold weather days act as if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people on cold weather days act as if
+um the future were only full of cold
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the future were only full of cold
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the future were only full of cold
+weather days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather days
+and therefore their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and therefore their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and therefore their preferences
+would be such that they would always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would be such that they would always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would be such that they would always
+want cold weather items
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want cold weather items
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want cold weather items
+or differently people act as if um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or differently people act as if um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or differently people act as if um
+their preferences for cold weather items
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences for cold weather items
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences for cold weather items
+who really want a warm jacket
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who really want a warm jacket
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who really want a warm jacket
+would not change even if in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would not change even if in the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would not change even if in the future
+there will be warm days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there will be warm days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there will be warm days
+notice that in some of this evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that in some of this evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that in some of this evidence
+what's hard to distinguish
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's hard to distinguish
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's hard to distinguish
+is the the the predicting people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the the the predicting people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the the the predicting people's
+preference change in the future versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference change in the future versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference change in the future versus
+predicting future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicting future
+states so if somebody predicted that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states so if somebody predicted that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states so if somebody predicted that
+it's going to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's going to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's going to be
+cold forever you would act in the exact
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold forever you would act in the exact
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cold forever you would act in the exact
+same way
+
+ align:start position:0%
+same way
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+same way
+as if like you predicted that your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as if like you predicted that your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as if like you predicted that your
+preferences are such that you always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences are such that you always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences are such that you always
+want warm jackets you're always going to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want warm jackets you're always going to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want warm jackets you're always going to
+be cooled
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be cooled
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be cooled
+now production bias is about the latter
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now production bias is about the latter
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now production bias is about the latter
+it's about people's preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's about people's preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's about people's preferences
+but often it's actually hard to separate
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but often it's actually hard to separate
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but often it's actually hard to separate
+predict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict
+predictions of probabilities of how how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predictions of probabilities of how how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predictions of probabilities of how how
+likely it is that it's going to be cold
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likely it is that it's going to be cold
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+likely it is that it's going to be cold
+in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future
+from predictions of people's utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from predictions of people's utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from predictions of people's utility
+um another example is car purchases on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um another example is car purchases on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um another example is car purchases on
+sunny versus
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny versus
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny versus
+rainy or cold days imagine it's a nice
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rainy or cold days imagine it's a nice
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rainy or cold days imagine it's a nice
+sunny day and you go
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny day and you go
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny day and you go
+car shopping as you do it well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+car shopping as you do it well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+car shopping as you do it well
+why and the the car dela offers your on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why and the the car dela offers your on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why and the the car dela offers your on
+audi tt um you know why i guess i never
+
+ align:start position:0%
+audi tt um you know why i guess i never
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+audi tt um you know why i guess i never
+thought of the audi gt you go for a test
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thought of the audi gt you go for a test
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thought of the audi gt you go for a test
+drive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+drive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+drive
+and the wind whips through your air it's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the wind whips through your air it's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the wind whips through your air it's
+really sunny and great and like having
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really sunny and great and like having
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really sunny and great and like having
+this this car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this this car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this this car
+during the sunny day is really amazing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+during the sunny day is really amazing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+during the sunny day is really amazing
+so you know you would love to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you know you would love to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you know you would love to
+to buy a car like this why not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to buy a car like this why not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to buy a car like this why not
+imagine in contrast car purchases on an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine in contrast car purchases on an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine in contrast car purchases on an
+icy day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+icy day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+icy day
+imagine your car shopping around the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine your car shopping around the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+imagine your car shopping around the
+time of a freak snowstorm you kind of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time of a freak snowstorm you kind of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time of a freak snowstorm you kind of
+wanted to have a car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted to have a car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted to have a car
+and somehow it's a snowstorm when you go
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and somehow it's a snowstorm when you go
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and somehow it's a snowstorm when you go
+car shopping
+
+ align:start position:0%
+car shopping
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+car shopping
+now the car dealer says how about this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the car dealer says how about this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the car dealer says how about this
+grand
+
+ align:start position:0%
+grand
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+grand
+uh jeep grand um cherokee you know what
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh jeep grand um cherokee you know what
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh jeep grand um cherokee you know what
+you might say what
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might say what
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might say what
+why i guess i never thought of the the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why i guess i never thought of the the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+why i guess i never thought of the the
+jeep grand cherokee why not um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jeep grand cherokee why not um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jeep grand cherokee why not um
+try it you go for a test drive and you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+try it you go for a test drive and you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+try it you go for a test drive and you
+main traction on the black eyes and you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+main traction on the black eyes and you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+main traction on the black eyes and you
+jump the curb with these it's just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jump the curb with these it's just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+jump the curb with these it's just
+amazing now you might just say well i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+amazing now you might just say well i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+amazing now you might just say well i
+would love a car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would love a car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would love a car
+like this now what people seem to then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like this now what people seem to then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like this now what people seem to then
+forgetting in both of these examples is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forgetting in both of these examples is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forgetting in both of these examples is
+that it might just happen to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that it might just happen to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that it might just happen to be
+a really uh bad snow day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a really uh bad snow day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a really uh bad snow day
+on that particular day or it might have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on that particular day or it might have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on that particular day or it might have
+just been like really sunny on that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just been like really sunny on that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just been like really sunny on that
+particular day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular day
+and things might change um over time and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and things might change um over time and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and things might change um over time and
+people might not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people might not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people might not
+um understand that their preferences for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um understand that their preferences for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um understand that their preferences for
+the audi versus the jeep might change
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the audi versus the jeep might change
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the audi versus the jeep might change
+with the weather over time and that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with the weather over time and that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with the weather over time and that's
+exactly what buses
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exactly what buses
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exactly what buses
+are looking at they're looking at how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are looking at they're looking at how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are looking at they're looking at how
+does weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does weather
+impact auto mobile purchases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+impact auto mobile purchases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+impact auto mobile purchases
+and in particular what they look at is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular what they look at is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular what they look at is
+the weather on or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the weather on or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the weather on or
+the prediction is that the weather or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the prediction is that the weather or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the prediction is that the weather or
+the neoclassical prediction is that the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the neoclassical prediction is that the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the neoclassical prediction is that the
+weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather
+on the day of a car purchase should have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the day of a car purchase should have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the day of a car purchase should have
+no influence on the type of car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+no influence on the type of car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+no influence on the type of car
+bought so now what blizzard now look at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bought so now what blizzard now look at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bought so now what blizzard now look at
+is do idiosyncratic weather conditions
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is do idiosyncratic weather conditions
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is do idiosyncratic weather conditions
+controlling for time of year
+
+ align:start position:0%
+controlling for time of year
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+controlling for time of year
+predict car sales and then in particular
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict car sales and then in particular
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict car sales and then in particular
+also
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also
+returns of those cars and they look at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returns of those cars and they look at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returns of those cars and they look at
+two types of cars in particular
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two types of cars in particular
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two types of cars in particular
+convertibles and then they look at four
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles and then they look at four
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles and then they look at four
+wheel drives like the jeep that i just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wheel drives like the jeep that i just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wheel drives like the jeep that i just
+showed you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+showed you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+showed you
+and the key part here is that you look
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the key part here is that you look
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the key part here is that you look
+at like idiosyncratic weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at like idiosyncratic weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at like idiosyncratic weather
+conditions that is to say controlling
+
+ align:start position:0%
+conditions that is to say controlling
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+conditions that is to say controlling
+for time of the year
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for time of the year
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for time of the year
+suppose it's an unusually warm and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose it's an unusually warm and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose it's an unusually warm and
+unusually colder icy day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unusually colder icy day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unusually colder icy day
+does that predict people's car sales um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does that predict people's car sales um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does that predict people's car sales um
+our purchases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our purchases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+our purchases
+and particularly also the returns of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and particularly also the returns of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and particularly also the returns of
+those cars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those cars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those cars
+now the the buying patterns are very
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the the buying patterns are very
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the the buying patterns are very
+much consistent with production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much consistent with production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much consistent with production bias
+people buy more convertibles and good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people buy more convertibles and good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people buy more convertibles and good
+weather days and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather days and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather days and
+more four-wheel drives on bad weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more four-wheel drives on bad weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more four-wheel drives on bad weather
+days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days
+and then in particular and again that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then in particular and again that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then in particular and again that
+evidence by itself is not necessarily
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence by itself is not necessarily
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence by itself is not necessarily
+production bias it could just be a good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias it could just be a good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias it could just be a good
+weather day and you kind of always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day and you kind of always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day and you kind of always
+wanted to buy a really nice car and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted to buy a really nice car and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted to buy a really nice car and
+therefore you just do it on the good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+therefore you just do it on the good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+therefore you just do it on the good
+weather day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day
+but people are also more likely to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people are also more likely to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people are also more likely to
+return their convertible
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return their convertible
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return their convertible
+if they bought it in a good good weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they bought it in a good good weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they bought it in a good good weather
+day and they're more likely to return
+
+ align:start position:0%
+day and they're more likely to return
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+day and they're more likely to return
+their four-wheel drive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their four-wheel drive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their four-wheel drive
+if they bought it on a bad weather day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they bought it on a bad weather day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they bought it on a bad weather day
+and that's very much consistent with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's very much consistent with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's very much consistent with
+evidence of production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias
+on a good weather day you think you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on a good weather day you think you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on a good weather day you think you know
+your convertible is going to be amazing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your convertible is going to be amazing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your convertible is going to be amazing
+forever
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forever
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forever
+you're going to be love driving and even
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're going to be love driving and even
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're going to be love driving and even
+if it's going to be raining it's going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if it's going to be raining it's going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if it's going to be raining it's going
+to be amazing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be amazing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be amazing
+but of course if it's raining a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but of course if it's raining a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but of course if it's raining a
+convertible is really not like a car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible is really not like a car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible is really not like a car
+that you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you
+want to have or it's really cold outside
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want to have or it's really cold outside
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want to have or it's really cold outside
+that's really not a great car to have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's really not a great car to have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's really not a great car to have
+similarly um if you have a four-wheel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+similarly um if you have a four-wheel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+similarly um if you have a four-wheel
+drive and it's really warm and nice
+
+ align:start position:0%
+drive and it's really warm and nice
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+drive and it's really warm and nice
+outside
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outside
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+outside
+you'd probably much rather have like a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you'd probably much rather have like a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you'd probably much rather have like a
+lighter car and or potentially even like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lighter car and or potentially even like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lighter car and or potentially even like
+a convertible
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a convertible
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a convertible
+now one important question here is now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now one important question here is now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now one important question here is now
+in any the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in any the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in any the
+of the behavioral biases that we
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the behavioral biases that we
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the behavioral biases that we
+discussed is how does the market react
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discussed is how does the market react
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discussed is how does the market react
+to such behavior
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to such behavior
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to such behavior
+so one tricky part here is that you want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so one tricky part here is that you want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so one tricky part here is that you want
+to be kind of careful so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be kind of careful so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be kind of careful so
+on the one hand you might sort of say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the one hand you might sort of say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the one hand you might sort of say
+well let's exploit this kind of behavior
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well let's exploit this kind of behavior
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well let's exploit this kind of behavior
+and i think that's right you might sort
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and i think that's right you might sort
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and i think that's right you might sort
+of get people to purchase stuff that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of get people to purchase stuff that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of get people to purchase stuff that
+they don't necessarily
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they don't necessarily
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they don't necessarily
+um want and truly that's happening in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um want and truly that's happening in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um want and truly that's happening in
+some cases
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some cases
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some cases
+but to the extent that people can just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but to the extent that people can just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but to the extent that people can just
+just return these items
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just return these items
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just return these items
+that's actually not necessarily a great
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's actually not necessarily a great
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's actually not necessarily a great
+idea particularly if you're if you're a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+idea particularly if you're if you're a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+idea particularly if you're if you're a
+policy it's car sales person and you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+policy it's car sales person and you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+policy it's car sales person and you
+sell people's stuff and then just come
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sell people's stuff and then just come
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sell people's stuff and then just come
+back and you have to deal with them and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back and you have to deal with them and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+back and you have to deal with them and
+they're unhappy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're unhappy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're unhappy
+and maybe then at the end of the day to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and maybe then at the end of the day to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and maybe then at the end of the day to
+just return the car and actually don't
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just return the car and actually don't
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just return the car and actually don't
+buy anything eventually
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy anything eventually
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy anything eventually
+because they're unhappy that's really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because they're unhappy that's really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because they're unhappy that's really
+not great for you plus it wastes a lot
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not great for you plus it wastes a lot
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not great for you plus it wastes a lot
+of time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of time
+and effort on the other hand uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and effort on the other hand uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and effort on the other hand uh
+you know sometimes people might just not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know sometimes people might just not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know sometimes people might just not
+return things and they might just sort
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return things and they might just sort
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return things and they might just sort
+of get stuck with their car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of get stuck with their car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of get stuck with their car
+and and just leave it at that and then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and and just leave it at that and then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and and just leave it at that and then
+it might be a good idea to exploit this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it might be a good idea to exploit this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it might be a good idea to exploit this
+behavior
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavior
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavior
+in particular sort of like on on a good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular sort of like on on a good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular sort of like on on a good
+weather day you might want to try
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day you might want to try
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather day you might want to try
+to sell people convertibles another
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to sell people convertibles another
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to sell people convertibles another
+thing you could potentially exploit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thing you could potentially exploit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thing you could potentially exploit
+is essentially people just have higher
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is essentially people just have higher
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is essentially people just have higher
+willingness to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay
+suppose somebody really really wants to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose somebody really really wants to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose somebody really really wants to
+buy a convertible anyway regardless of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy a convertible anyway regardless of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+buy a convertible anyway regardless of
+the weather
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the weather
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the weather
+but on a good weather day their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but on a good weather day their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but on a good weather day their
+willingness to pay might be higher
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay might be higher
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willingness to pay might be higher
+and so you might be able to sell them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so you might be able to sell them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so you might be able to sell them
+additional stuff so you might be able to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+additional stuff so you might be able to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+additional stuff so you might be able to
+to sell them maybe a nicer version of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to sell them maybe a nicer version of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to sell them maybe a nicer version of
+the car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the car
+which probably they're not going to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which probably they're not going to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which probably they're not going to
+return because you know once they have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return because you know once they have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+return because you know once they have
+it they're just going to keep it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it they're just going to keep it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it they're just going to keep it
+and so you might want to um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so you might want to um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so you might want to um
+you know exploit that if you're on a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know exploit that if you're on a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know exploit that if you're on a
+company
+
+ align:start position:0%
+company
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+company
+you might also um or there might also be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might also um or there might also be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might also um or there might also be
+some agency issues within the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some agency issues within the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some agency issues within the
+um the the car car
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the the car car
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um the the car car
+um sales shop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um sales shop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um sales shop
+which is like if the sales person really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is like if the sales person really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is like if the sales person really
+wants to um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wants to um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wants to um
+sell things and is incentivized to sell
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sell things and is incentivized to sell
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sell things and is incentivized to sell
+things
+
+ align:start position:0%
+things
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+things
+and that's regardless of the returns
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's regardless of the returns
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's regardless of the returns
+then you might get into situations where
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then you might get into situations where
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then you might get into situations where
+in like sunny days lots of convertibles
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in like sunny days lots of convertibles
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in like sunny days lots of convertibles
+are being sold but they're all being
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are being sold but they're all being
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are being sold but they're all being
+returned
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returned
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returned
+so if you are a company you kind of want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if you are a company you kind of want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if you are a company you kind of want
+to set the incentives right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to set the incentives right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to set the incentives right
+then like it's that car salesman gets
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then like it's that car salesman gets
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then like it's that car salesman gets
+only rewarded for stuff that's not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only rewarded for stuff that's not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only rewarded for stuff that's not
+returned because it precisely gets you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returned because it precisely gets you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+returned because it precisely gets you
+like things that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like things that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like things that
+will not make you happy or profitable in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will not make you happy or profitable in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will not make you happy or profitable in
+the long run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the long run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the long run
+now there's a another um so as a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's a another um so as a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's a another um so as a
+customer now how might you take
+
+ align:start position:0%
+customer now how might you take
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+customer now how might you take
+advantage of production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+advantage of production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+advantage of production bias
+well in in some ways there's an article
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well in in some ways there's an article
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well in in some ways there's an article
+here that you can look at that argues
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here that you can look at that argues
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here that you can look at that argues
+that winter is the best time to buy a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that winter is the best time to buy a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that winter is the best time to buy a
+convertible
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible
+and so the reason is of course is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the reason is of course is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so the reason is of course is
+convertibles are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles are
+are often cheaper in in winter in part
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are often cheaper in in winter in part
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are often cheaper in in winter in part
+because you know the car sales dealer
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know the car sales dealer
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know the car sales dealer
+might have like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might have like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might have like
+storage costs the like so the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+storage costs the like so the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+storage costs the like so the
+convertibles is actually cheaper or you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles is actually cheaper or you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles is actually cheaper or you
+know just because people are taking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+know just because people are taking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+know just because people are taking
+advantage of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+advantage of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+advantage of
+in the summer but they really want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the summer but they really want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the summer but they really want
+convertibles now you might sell and say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles now you might sell and say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertibles now you might sell and say
+well let's just buy a convertible in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well let's just buy a convertible in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well let's just buy a convertible in the
+winter and i think that's in principle
+
+ align:start position:0%
+winter and i think that's in principle
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+winter and i think that's in principle
+right if you have like the time to wait
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right if you have like the time to wait
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right if you have like the time to wait
+until the summer or like a long time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+until the summer or like a long time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+until the summer or like a long time
+horizon
+
+ align:start position:0%
+horizon
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+horizon
+now you want to be a little bit careful
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now you want to be a little bit careful
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now you want to be a little bit careful
+with exploiting these market conditions
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with exploiting these market conditions
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with exploiting these market conditions
+um as a neoclassical
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um as a neoclassical
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um as a neoclassical
+agent uh which was manifested by uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+agent uh which was manifested by uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+agent uh which was manifested by uh
+some of my colleagues who um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of my colleagues who um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of my colleagues who um
+shall be named who wanted to buy a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shall be named who wanted to buy a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shall be named who wanted to buy a
+convertible uh sometime in the summer
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible uh sometime in the summer
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible uh sometime in the summer
+they were really excited about the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were really excited about the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were really excited about the
+convertible but then they should have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible but then they should have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible but then they should have
+realized that well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+realized that well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+realized that well
+winter is actually the time to buy a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+winter is actually the time to buy a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+winter is actually the time to buy a
+convertible because it's going to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible because it's going to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible because it's going to be
+cheaper
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cheaper
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cheaper
+so then i decided well let's just wait
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then i decided well let's just wait
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then i decided well let's just wait
+until the winter and then buy the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+until the winter and then buy the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+until the winter and then buy the
+convertible um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible um
+then of course but then unfortunately
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then of course but then unfortunately
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then of course but then unfortunately
+happen or maybe fortunately and depends
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen or maybe fortunately and depends
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen or maybe fortunately and depends
+on the perspective
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the perspective
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on the perspective
+once winter arrived they actually didn't
+
+ align:start position:0%
+once winter arrived they actually didn't
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+once winter arrived they actually didn't
+want a convertible anymore
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want a convertible anymore
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want a convertible anymore
+because you know driving a winter a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know driving a winter a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know driving a winter a
+convertible in the winter is really not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible in the winter is really not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+convertible in the winter is really not
+a lot of fun
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a lot of fun
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a lot of fun
+so projection bias perhaps um also
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so projection bias perhaps um also
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so projection bias perhaps um also
+kicked in with my colleagues
+
+ align:start position:0%
+kicked in with my colleagues
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+kicked in with my colleagues
+where they then perhaps should have just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where they then perhaps should have just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where they then perhaps should have just
+bought the convertible and then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bought the convertible and then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bought the convertible and then
+predicted that in the summer they really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicted that in the summer they really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predicted that in the summer they really
+wanted it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wanted it
+but instead they didn't buy it because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but instead they didn't buy it because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but instead they didn't buy it because
+in winter who wants a convertible um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in winter who wants a convertible um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in winter who wants a convertible um
+in the winter so when exploiting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the winter so when exploiting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the winter so when exploiting
+behavioral biases from others you want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavioral biases from others you want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+behavioral biases from others you want
+to be careful that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be careful that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be careful that
+you might not be affected or that you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might not be affected or that you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might not be affected or that you
+may be affected by it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+may be affected by it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+may be affected by it
+yourself let me give you one last
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yourself let me give you one last
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yourself let me give you one last
+example which is this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example which is this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example which is this
+example by van goghen and loinstein
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example by van goghen and loinstein
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example by van goghen and loinstein
+which is about thirst here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is about thirst here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is about thirst here
+visitors are asked before or after the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+visitors are asked before or after the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+visitors are asked before or after the
+gross cardiovascular workouts
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gross cardiovascular workouts
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+gross cardiovascular workouts
+people go into the gym to complete a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people go into the gym to complete a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people go into the gym to complete a
+short survey
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short survey
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short survey
+and the survey was as follows imagine
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the survey was as follows imagine
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the survey was as follows imagine
+that three vacationers in colorado this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that three vacationers in colorado this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that three vacationers in colorado this
+past
+
+ align:start position:0%
+past
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+past
+august embarked on a short six mile hike
+
+ align:start position:0%
+august embarked on a short six mile hike
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+august embarked on a short six mile hike
+as the day were on they realized that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as the day were on they realized that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as the day were on they realized that
+they were complete they were hopelessly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were complete they were hopelessly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were complete they were hopelessly
+lost
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lost
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lost
+worse because they had packed lightly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+worse because they had packed lightly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+worse because they had packed lightly
+for a short hike
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a short hike
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a short hike
+they had not carried much in the way of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they had not carried much in the way of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they had not carried much in the way of
+food or water
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food or water
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+food or water
+and what people were asking about and so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what people were asking about and so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what people were asking about and so
+they were essentially given this um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were essentially given this um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they were essentially given this um
+this this story and then um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this this story and then um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this this story and then um
+in the space below please uh they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the space below please uh they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the space below please uh they're
+asking the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking the
+to do the following in the space below
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to do the following in the space below
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to do the following in the space below
+please take the perspective of one of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+please take the perspective of one of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+please take the perspective of one of
+the three hikers and describe your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the three hikers and describe your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the three hikers and describe your
+situation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+situation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+situation
+how you got into it how you feel now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how you got into it how you feel now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how you got into it how you feel now
+both physically and mentally
+
+ align:start position:0%
+both physically and mentally
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+both physically and mentally
+and what what you are um hoping will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what what you are um hoping will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and what what you are um hoping will
+happen
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen
+and now um what happens or what the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and now um what happens or what the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and now um what happens or what the
+evidence of when logan and laurencing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of when logan and laurencing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of when logan and laurencing
+says is that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+says is that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+says is that
+thirsty subjects have way more empathy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty subjects have way more empathy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty subjects have way more empathy
+for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for
+others thirst so when you look at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+others thirst so when you look at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+others thirst so when you look at
+different outcomes uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different outcomes uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different outcomes uh
+before and after um exercising remember
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before and after um exercising remember
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+before and after um exercising remember
+after exercising is when people were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+after exercising is when people were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+after exercising is when people were
+thirsty
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty
+uh third thirst was mentioned
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh third thirst was mentioned
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh third thirst was mentioned
+um uh uh before hunger and the essay for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh uh before hunger and the essay for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh uh before hunger and the essay for
+how thirsty people watch more thirst was
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how thirsty people watch more thirst was
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how thirsty people watch more thirst was
+unpleasant for hikers was mentioned much
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unpleasant for hikers was mentioned much
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+unpleasant for hikers was mentioned much
+more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+more
+hikers would regret not packing water
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hikers would regret not packing water
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hikers would regret not packing water
+thirst more unpleasant for the self
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirst more unpleasant for the self
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirst more unpleasant for the self
+oneself would regret more uh uh not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+oneself would regret more uh uh not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+oneself would regret more uh uh not
+packing water so all of these items that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+packing water so all of these items that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+packing water so all of these items that
+i sort of like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i sort of like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i sort of like
+um first related people when they were
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um first related people when they were
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um first related people when they were
+thirsty after exercising were way more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty after exercising were way more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thirsty after exercising were way more
+um focused on than than
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um focused on than than
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um focused on than than
+not so it is as if you like people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not so it is as if you like people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not so it is as if you like people are
+production bias in a sense like people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias in a sense like people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias in a sense like people
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+understand much more that the condition
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understand much more that the condition
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understand much more that the condition
+of thirst is really bad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of thirst is really bad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of thirst is really bad
+um when they're thirsty compared when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're thirsty compared when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um when they're thirsty compared when
+they are not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they are not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they are not
+okay so let me take stock here what
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so let me take stock here what
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so let me take stock here what
+would we discuss so i showed you some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would we discuss so i showed you some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would we discuss so i showed you some
+evidence of production bias for many
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias for many
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+evidence of production bias for many
+short run changes and preferences uh uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short run changes and preferences uh uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short run changes and preferences uh uh
+and sort of at least for some of them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and sort of at least for some of them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and sort of at least for some of them
+there's hunger thirst pain sleep
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's hunger thirst pain sleep
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's hunger thirst pain sleep
+weather addiction there's other evidence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather addiction there's other evidence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+weather addiction there's other evidence
+as well as arousal
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as well as arousal
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as well as arousal
+um anger sadness and so on when people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um anger sadness and so on when people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um anger sadness and so on when people
+are in certain states they have trouble
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are in certain states they have trouble
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are in certain states they have trouble
+to predict their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to predict their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to predict their preferences
+when they're not in that state now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're not in that state now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're not in that state now
+one key question that i don't have a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one key question that i don't have a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one key question that i don't have a
+great answer for you is why do people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+great answer for you is why do people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+great answer for you is why do people
+not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not
+learn people have lots have had lots of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+learn people have lots have had lots of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+learn people have lots have had lots of
+experience with a lot of these changes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experience with a lot of these changes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experience with a lot of these changes
+in particular when you think about like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular when you think about like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular when you think about like
+sleep or hunger or the like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep or hunger or the like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sleep or hunger or the like
+but even for addiction people just have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but even for addiction people just have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but even for addiction people just have
+smoked a cigarette versus not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked a cigarette versus not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked a cigarette versus not
+that happens all the time so they really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that happens all the time so they really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that happens all the time so they really
+should have learned over time to predict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+should have learned over time to predict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+should have learned over time to predict
+their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences
+um so the misprediction is really not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um so the misprediction is really not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um so the misprediction is really not
+due to a lack of opportunity to learn
+
+ align:start position:0%
+due to a lack of opportunity to learn
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+due to a lack of opportunity to learn
+yet people really seem to believe all
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yet people really seem to believe all
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yet people really seem to believe all
+the time that this time is different
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the time that this time is different
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the time that this time is different
+over and over again so i think that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over and over again so i think that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over and over again so i think that's
+just a very
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just a very
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just a very
+deep cognitive bias in some ways in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deep cognitive bias in some ways in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+deep cognitive bias in some ways in the
+sense that when people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sense that when people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sense that when people are
+affected by certain visceral or other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affected by certain visceral or other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affected by certain visceral or other
+aspects that affect their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+aspects that affect their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+aspects that affect their preferences
+it's really hard to imagine how you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's really hard to imagine how you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's really hard to imagine how you
+might feel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might feel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might feel
+when that visceral influence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when that visceral influence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when that visceral influence
+is not at play anymore in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+in addition to people underestimating
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in addition to people underestimating
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in addition to people underestimating
+short-run changes and preferences people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short-run changes and preferences people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short-run changes and preferences people
+also underestimate adaptation to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also underestimate adaptation to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+also underestimate adaptation to
+long-range
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-range
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-range
+so dan gilbert if you're interested has
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so dan gilbert if you're interested has
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so dan gilbert if you're interested has
+a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a
+very nice work on a book including a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very nice work on a book including a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very nice work on a book including a
+book called stumbling on happiness
+
+ align:start position:0%
+book called stumbling on happiness
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+book called stumbling on happiness
+it gives many examples of the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it gives many examples of the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it gives many examples of the
+underestimation of adaptation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimation of adaptation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimation of adaptation
+which which they call immune and neglect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which which they call immune and neglect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which which they call immune and neglect
+and so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so
+the question here is how does a positive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the question here is how does a positive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the question here is how does a positive
+or or so one example is how does a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or or so one example is how does a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or or so one example is how does a
+positive or negative 10-year decision
+
+ align:start position:0%
+positive or negative 10-year decision
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+positive or negative 10-year decision
+affect well-being and so they ask
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affect well-being and so they ask
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affect well-being and so they ask
+asking current assistant professors at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking current assistant professors at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+asking current assistant professors at
+you at the university of texas to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you at the university of texas to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you at the university of texas to
+forecast
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forecast
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+forecast
+and then they ask like as well former
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then they ask like as well former
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then they ask like as well former
+university of texas assistant professors
+
+ align:start position:0%
+university of texas assistant professors
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+university of texas assistant professors
+to recall
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to recall
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to recall
+and you know as a current assistant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you know as a current assistant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you know as a current assistant
+professor like myself
+
+ align:start position:0%
+professor like myself
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+professor like myself
+if you do the forecast if there's a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you do the forecast if there's a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you do the forecast if there's a
+negative 10-year decision you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+negative 10-year decision you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+negative 10-year decision you know
+life will be terrible and like how will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life will be terrible and like how will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life will be terrible and like how will
+we ever i'm
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we ever i'm
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+we ever i'm
+going to live after after uh being
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to live after after uh being
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to live after after uh being
+denied a tenure
+
+ align:start position:0%
+denied a tenure
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+denied a tenure
+um and so when you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and so when you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and so when you
+look at what's actually happening well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+look at what's actually happening well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+look at what's actually happening well
+people seem to be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to be
+professors seem to be relatively
+
+ align:start position:0%
+professors seem to be relatively
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+professors seem to be relatively
+accurate in predicting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+accurate in predicting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+accurate in predicting
+the immediate impact of the 10-year
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the immediate impact of the 10-year
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the immediate impact of the 10-year
+decision but they overestimated the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decision but they overestimated the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+decision but they overestimated the
+long-run impact
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-run impact
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-run impact
+that is to say in fact immediately after
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say in fact immediately after
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that is to say in fact immediately after
+being denied 10-year people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+being denied 10-year people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+being denied 10-year people are
+maybe you know arguably or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe you know arguably or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe you know arguably or
+understandably disappointed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understandably disappointed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understandably disappointed
+and unhappy but over time the long run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and unhappy but over time the long run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and unhappy but over time the long run
+effect is much less severe people seem
+
+ align:start position:0%
+effect is much less severe people seem
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+effect is much less severe people seem
+to adjust to their circumstances
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to adjust to their circumstances
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to adjust to their circumstances
+in the medium and long run people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the medium and long run people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the medium and long run people's
+people are uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are uh
+almost as happy as if not uh as happy as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+almost as happy as if not uh as happy as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+almost as happy as if not uh as happy as
+if they are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if they are
+uh had gotten ten years so there's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh had gotten ten years so there's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh had gotten ten years so there's
+actually not much of a long run effect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually not much of a long run effect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually not much of a long run effect
+yet people seem to mispredict the effect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yet people seem to mispredict the effect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+yet people seem to mispredict the effect
+they really seem to think like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they really seem to think like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they really seem to think like
+in the short run the effect will be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the short run the effect will be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the short run the effect will be
+really bad and that bad effect will be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really bad and that bad effect will be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really bad and that bad effect will be
+um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um
+last will last forever so people seem to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+last will last forever so people seem to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+last will last forever so people seem to
+essentially sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially sort of
+understand there's a psychological
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understand there's a psychological
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understand there's a psychological
+immune system to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immune system to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+immune system to
+bad events people recover from negative
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bad events people recover from negative
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bad events people recover from negative
+shocks quite well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shocks quite well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+shocks quite well
+over time but people seem to mispredict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time but people seem to mispredict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time but people seem to mispredict
+this recovery which again is what's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this recovery which again is what's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this recovery which again is what's
+called immune neglect
+
+ align:start position:0%
+called immune neglect
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+called immune neglect
+there's similar misprediction for other
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's similar misprediction for other
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's similar misprediction for other
+life events such as
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life events such as
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+life events such as
+paraplegia or lottery ones for like for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+paraplegia or lottery ones for like for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+paraplegia or lottery ones for like for
+very negative and positive events
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very negative and positive events
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very negative and positive events
+people seem to misunderstand that like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to misunderstand that like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people seem to misunderstand that like
+again in the short run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again in the short run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again in the short run
+there's usually a pretty large decrease
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's usually a pretty large decrease
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's usually a pretty large decrease
+or increase
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or increase
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or increase
+in people's happiness and life
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people's happiness and life
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in people's happiness and life
+satisfaction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satisfaction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+satisfaction
+but people tend to recover from that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people tend to recover from that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but people tend to recover from that
+quite well over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite well over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite well over time
+but in their prediction people seem to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but in their prediction people seem to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but in their prediction people seem to
+mispredict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict
+that adjustment people seem to think
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that adjustment people seem to think
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that adjustment people seem to think
+that these bad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that these bad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that these bad
+uh the bad effects on happiness or bad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the bad effects on happiness or bad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the bad effects on happiness or bad
+or good effects and happiness
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or good effects and happiness
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or good effects and happiness
+would persist forever let me now show
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would persist forever let me now show
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would persist forever let me now show
+you a simple model of production bias by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you a simple model of production bias by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you a simple model of production bias by
+lawrence d nadel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lawrence d nadel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lawrence d nadel
+that formalizes some of the intuitions
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that formalizes some of the intuitions
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that formalizes some of the intuitions
+that we discussed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that we discussed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that we discussed
+so far
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so far
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so far
+[Music]
+
+ align:start position:0%
+[Music]
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+[Music]
+so suppose true utility of time t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so suppose true utility of time t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so suppose true utility of time t
+depends on both consumption
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depends on both consumption
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depends on both consumption
+ct at time t and the state st at time t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ct at time t and the state st at time t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ct at time t and the state st at time t
+so it's u of c g s t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so it's u of c g s t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so it's u of c g s t
+the state could be anything that affects
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the state could be anything that affects
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the state could be anything that affects
+utility from consumption
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility from consumption
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility from consumption
+from ranging from the level of hunger or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from ranging from the level of hunger or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from ranging from the level of hunger or
+addiction whether somebody had just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addiction whether somebody had just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addiction whether somebody had just
+smoked versus not or whether somebody
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked versus not or whether somebody
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked versus not or whether somebody
+has just gotten some pop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+uh dose or not or past consumption um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh dose or not or past consumption um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh dose or not or past consumption um
+et cetera whether somebody is tired and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+et cetera whether somebody is tired and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+et cetera whether somebody is tired and
+so on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so on
+now the prediction at time t of future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the prediction at time t of future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the prediction at time t of future
+utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility
+uh uh at time tau larger than t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh at time tau larger than t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh at time tau larger than t
+for consuming c tau and state as tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for consuming c tau and state as tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for consuming c tau and state as tau
+is u hat of c tau s tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is u hat of c tau s tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is u hat of c tau s tau
+and that equals one minus alpha times u
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that equals one minus alpha times u
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that equals one minus alpha times u
+of c c tau s tau plus alpha
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of c c tau s tau plus alpha
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of c c tau s tau plus alpha
+times u of c tau s t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+times u of c tau s t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+times u of c tau s t
+now what is this expression well if you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what is this expression well if you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what is this expression well if you
+look at the first part
+
+ align:start position:0%
+look at the first part
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+look at the first part
+u of c tau s tau that is the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+u of c tau s tau that is the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+u of c tau s tau that is the
+correct future utility at time tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correct future utility at time tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correct future utility at time tau
+from consuming c tau and state tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from consuming c tau and state tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from consuming c tau and state tau
+so if alpha was zero then this term here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if alpha was zero then this term here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if alpha was zero then this term here
+would go away
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would go away
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would go away
+this term is just one so that is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this term is just one so that is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this term is just one so that is
+essentially a correct prediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially a correct prediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially a correct prediction
+so there's no production bias the person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so there's no production bias the person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so there's no production bias the person
+has rational expectations about their
+
+ align:start position:0%
+has rational expectations about their
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+has rational expectations about their
+future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+utility um at uh time tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility um at uh time tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility um at uh time tau
+uh of utility c tau and in state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh of utility c tau and in state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh of utility c tau and in state
+as tau now if alpha is not zero
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as tau now if alpha is not zero
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as tau now if alpha is not zero
+then there's this additional term here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then there's this additional term here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then there's this additional term here
+so this is the weighted average of alpha
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so this is the weighted average of alpha
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so this is the weighted average of alpha
+on a weight for this other term here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on a weight for this other term here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on a weight for this other term here
+which i'm going to talk about a second
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which i'm going to talk about a second
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which i'm going to talk about a second
+and one minus alpha of the correct
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one minus alpha of the correct
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one minus alpha of the correct
+utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+of consuming c tau and state as tau now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of consuming c tau and state as tau now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of consuming c tau and state as tau now
+what is this other term here
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what is this other term here
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what is this other term here
+well um the person gets see tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well um the person gets see tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well um the person gets see tau
+correctly so the consumption is right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correctly so the consumption is right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correctly so the consumption is right
+but the state is wrong and what state is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but the state is wrong and what state is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but the state is wrong and what state is
+the person using to predict their future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person using to predict their future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person using to predict their future
+utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility
+well it's using st the current state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well it's using st the current state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well it's using st the current state
+so the person is essentially using the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person is essentially using the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person is essentially using the
+current stage to some degree to predict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+current stage to some degree to predict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+current stage to some degree to predict
+their future utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their future utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their future utility
+instead of the future state as tau now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead of the future state as tau now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead of the future state as tau now
+notice that if s t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that if s t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+notice that if s t
+and s tau is the same then there's no
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and s tau is the same then there's no
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and s tau is the same then there's no
+problem here there's going to be no
+
+ align:start position:0%
+problem here there's going to be no
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+problem here there's going to be no
+misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+so it better be the case that the states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so it better be the case that the states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so it better be the case that the states
+as t and s tau
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as t and s tau
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+as t and s tau
+are different for example a hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are different for example a hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are different for example a hungry
+person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person
+would mispredict the utility from not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would mispredict the utility from not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would mispredict the utility from not
+being hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+being hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+being hungry
+so the utility from not being hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the utility from not being hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the utility from not being hungry
+would be this part
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would be this part
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+would be this part
+the person is hungry right now at time t
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person is hungry right now at time t
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person is hungry right now at time t
+if s t equals hungry the person would
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if s t equals hungry the person would
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if s t equals hungry the person would
+predict their future utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict their future utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict their future utility
+even when they're not hungry thinking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+even when they're not hungry thinking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+even when they're not hungry thinking
+that they will always be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that they will always be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that they will always be hungry
+in the future so alpha between 0 and 1
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future so alpha between 0 and 1
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future so alpha between 0 and 1
+is the degree of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the degree of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is the degree of
+production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias
+[Music]
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+so just to give you more detail the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so just to give you more detail the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so just to give you more detail the
+person predicts how she'd feel about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person predicts how she'd feel about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person predicts how she'd feel about
+consuming c
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consuming c
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consuming c
+tau in the future partially at least by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tau in the future partially at least by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tau in the future partially at least by
+how she'd feel about consuming it now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how she'd feel about consuming it now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how she'd feel about consuming it now
+that's what the parameter alpha is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's what the parameter alpha is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's what the parameter alpha is
+measuring
+
+ align:start position:0%
+measuring
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+measuring
+alpha between zero and one could be zero
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha between zero and one could be zero
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha between zero and one could be zero
+could be one is the degree of production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could be one is the degree of production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+could be one is the degree of production
+bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+so alpha equals zero is correct
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so alpha equals zero is correct
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so alpha equals zero is correct
+understanding of future utility that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understanding of future utility that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+understanding of future utility that's
+essentially no projection bias that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially no projection bias that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially no projection bias that's
+rational expectations
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rational expectations
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rational expectations
+alpha equals one is full production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha equals one is full production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha equals one is full production bias
+that's a person who thinks essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's a person who thinks essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that's a person who thinks essentially
+their future state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their future state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their future state
+will always be their current state which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will always be their current state which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will always be their current state which
+of course is not necessarily true
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of course is not necessarily true
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of course is not necessarily true
+so now the person will optimize
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so now the person will optimize
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so now the person will optimize
+according to our perceived future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+according to our perceived future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+according to our perceived future
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+you had of c tau s tau and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you had of c tau s tau and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you had of c tau s tau and
+i'm going to assume for now as an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm going to assume for now as an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+i'm going to assume for now as an
+exponential discounter that's of course
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exponential discounter that's of course
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exponential discounter that's of course
+um you can relax that easily in fact in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you can relax that easily in fact in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you can relax that easily in fact in
+some of the problem sets from previous
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of the problem sets from previous
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some of the problem sets from previous
+years and from this year
+
+ align:start position:0%
+years and from this year
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+years and from this year
+that will be in fact relaxed now let me
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that will be in fact relaxed now let me
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that will be in fact relaxed now let me
+give you a very simple example with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give you a very simple example with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+give you a very simple example with
+hunger again the problem set
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger again the problem set
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger again the problem set
+this year and past problem that give you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this year and past problem that give you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this year and past problem that give you
+quite a few
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite a few
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite a few
+other additional examples that you can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+other additional examples that you can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+other additional examples that you can
+study so suppose there are two states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+study so suppose there are two states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+study so suppose there are two states
+the state is either hungry or not hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the state is either hungry or not hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the state is either hungry or not hungry
+h or n
+
+ align:start position:0%
+h or n
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+h or n
+and the consumption c t is over burgers
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the consumption c t is over burgers
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and the consumption c t is over burgers
+and money
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and money
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and money
+so u of c gt where ct is the number of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so u of c gt where ct is the number of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so u of c gt where ct is the number of
+um burgers and money that the person has
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um burgers and money that the person has
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um burgers and money that the person has
+uh uh um in state h is five times the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh um in state h is five times the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh um in state h is five times the
+number of burgers
+
+ align:start position:0%
+number of burgers
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+number of burgers
+um that the person needs plus the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that the person needs plus the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that the person needs plus the
+remaining money that's left that's spent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+remaining money that's left that's spent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+remaining money that's left that's spent
+on other things
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on other things
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on other things
+the utility of ctn when the person is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the utility of ctn when the person is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the utility of ctn when the person is
+not hungry is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not hungry is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not hungry is
+one times the number of burgers plus the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one times the number of burgers plus the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one times the number of burgers plus the
+money that's left
+
+ align:start position:0%
+money that's left
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+money that's left
+now what does that imply what it implies
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what does that imply what it implies
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now what does that imply what it implies
+that she's willing to pay five dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that she's willing to pay five dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that she's willing to pay five dollars
+for a burger when hungry and one dollar
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a burger when hungry and one dollar
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a burger when hungry and one dollar
+went full how do we how do we know that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+went full how do we how do we know that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+went full how do we how do we know that
+well we know that because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well we know that because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well we know that because
+um uh in the first case when the person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh in the first case when the person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh in the first case when the person
+is hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is hungry
+uh each burger gives five utils and each
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh each burger gives five utils and each
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh each burger gives five utils and each
+dollar gives one usual so the exchange
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollar gives one usual so the exchange
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollar gives one usual so the exchange
+rate between burglars and utils
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rate between burglars and utils
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rate between burglars and utils
+is five so the person is willing to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is five so the person is willing to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is five so the person is willing to pay
+five dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+five dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+five dollars
+per burger in the second case the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+per burger in the second case the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+per burger in the second case the
+exchange rate between burgers utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exchange rate between burgers utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exchange rate between burgers utility
+from burgers and utility from dollars is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from burgers and utility from dollars is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from burgers and utility from dollars is
+one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one
+so the person is willing to pay one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person is willing to pay one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person is willing to pay one
+dollar for burger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollar for burger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollar for burger
+now suppose alpha is three quarters
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now suppose alpha is three quarters
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now suppose alpha is three quarters
+again remember alpha is the degree of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again remember alpha is the degree of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again remember alpha is the degree of
+production bias i'm going to go back to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias i'm going to go back to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias i'm going to go back to
+you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you
+alpha is this parameter here alpha is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha is this parameter here alpha is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+alpha is this parameter here alpha is
+the degree of projection bias so the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the degree of projection bias so the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the degree of projection bias so the
+degree of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+degree of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+degree of
+misprediction so suppose in our example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction so suppose in our example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction so suppose in our example
+here alpha
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here alpha
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+here alpha
+equals three quarters and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+equals three quarters and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+equals three quarters and
+the person is not hungry right now what
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person is not hungry right now what
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person is not hungry right now what
+is their willingness to pay for a burger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is their willingness to pay for a burger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is their willingness to pay for a burger
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+so if the person is not hungry right now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if the person is not hungry right now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if the person is not hungry right now
+her correct
+
+ align:start position:0%
+her correct
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+her correct
+utility um or willingness to pay for a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility um or willingness to pay for a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+utility um or willingness to pay for a
+burger is one dollar we just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burger is one dollar we just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burger is one dollar we just
+established that already she's full and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+established that already she's full and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+established that already she's full and
+uh the correct utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the correct utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the correct utility
+for willingness to pay for a burger
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for willingness to pay for a burger
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for willingness to pay for a burger
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tonight when she'll be hungry
+is five dollars now her production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is five dollars now her production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is five dollars now her production bias
+is three quarters
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is three quarters
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is three quarters
+so essentially um uh she puts three
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so essentially um uh she puts three
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so essentially um uh she puts three
+quarters of a weight on her um current
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quarters of a weight on her um current
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quarters of a weight on her um current
+state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state
+and one quarter on the full state well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one quarter on the full state well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one quarter on the full state well
+three quarters times one plus one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three quarters times one plus one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three quarters times one plus one
+quarters times five
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quarters times five
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quarters times five
+or like going essentially three quarters
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or like going essentially three quarters
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or like going essentially three quarters
+between a difference of four is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between a difference of four is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between a difference of four is
+essentially um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially um
+uh uh uh three so the person essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh uh three so the person essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh uh uh three so the person essentially
+will think that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will think that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will think that
+um their um uh future willingness to pay
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um their um uh future willingness to pay
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um their um uh future willingness to pay
+is uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is uh
+two dollars um for burger um tonight
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two dollars um for burger um tonight
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two dollars um for burger um tonight
+or but definitely if you think she um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or but definitely if you think she um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or but definitely if you think she um
+only wants like um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only wants like um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+only wants like um
+[Music]
+
+ align:start position:0%
+[Music]
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+[Music]
+uh her willingness to pay will only be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh her willingness to pay will only be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh her willingness to pay will only be
+two dollars um for burger tonight if she
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two dollars um for burger tonight if she
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two dollars um for burger tonight if she
+orders for burger tonight and the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+orders for burger tonight and the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+orders for burger tonight and the
+burger costs like three or four dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burger costs like three or four dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burger costs like three or four dollars
+she will not be um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she will not be um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she will not be um
+willing um to do that now um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willing um to do that now um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+willing um to do that now um
+just to be very clear so like um the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just to be very clear so like um the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just to be very clear so like um the
+person only uh essentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person only uh essentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person only uh essentially
+if alpha equals three quarters uh the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if alpha equals three quarters uh the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if alpha equals three quarters uh the
+person only incorporates
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person only incorporates
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person only incorporates
+one quarter of the preference change
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one quarter of the preference change
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one quarter of the preference change
+from being full
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from being full
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from being full
+versus hungry in the future so that is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+versus hungry in the future so that is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+versus hungry in the future so that is
+to say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to say
+um there's a difference between of four
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's a difference between of four
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um there's a difference between of four
+dollars between one dollar and five
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars between one dollar and five
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars between one dollar and five
+dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dollars
+and she only takes into account
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and she only takes into account
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and she only takes into account
+one-fourth of that four dollars which is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one-fourth of that four dollars which is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one-fourth of that four dollars which is
+one dollars
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one dollars
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one dollars
+so willingness to pay as one plus one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so willingness to pay as one plus one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so willingness to pay as one plus one
+equals two
+
+ align:start position:0%
+equals two
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+equals two
+you can also write this down here uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can also write this down here uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can also write this down here uh
+instead of using the formula from the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead of using the formula from the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead of using the formula from the
+from the equation from before which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from the equation from before which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from the equation from before which
+essentially is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially is
+three quarters which is the again alpha
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three quarters which is the again alpha
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three quarters which is the again alpha
+times the utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+times the utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+times the utility
+um using the current state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um using the current state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um using the current state
+and one quarter using the current the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one quarter using the current the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and one quarter using the current the
+correct utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correct utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+correct utility
+um which is the future state once you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um which is the future state once you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um which is the future state once you
+sort of calculate that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of calculate that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of calculate that
+um she will be willing to pay more at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um she will be willing to pay more at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um she will be willing to pay more at
+most two dollars for pervert
+
+ align:start position:0%
+most two dollars for pervert
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+most two dollars for pervert
+so potentially she's making a mistake um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so potentially she's making a mistake um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so potentially she's making a mistake um
+now and so again in in the um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now and so again in in the um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now and so again in in the um
+in the problem set you will have more
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the problem set you will have more
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the problem set you will have more
+examples and questions uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples and questions uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples and questions uh
+that allows you to practice with this
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that allows you to practice with this
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that allows you to practice with this
+little model
+
+ align:start position:0%
+little model
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+little model
+now why should you care about projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now why should you care about projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now why should you care about projection
+bias i showed you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias i showed you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias i showed you
+pretty good evidence of production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pretty good evidence of production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pretty good evidence of production
+production-wise in many settings in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production-wise in many settings in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production-wise in many settings in the
+sense of saying like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sense of saying like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sense of saying like
+uh you know we think production bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh you know we think production bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh you know we think production bias
+really exists and we think production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really exists and we think production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really exists and we think production
+bias might be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias might be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias might be
+quite important so it might be relevant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite important so it might be relevant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quite important so it might be relevant
+in explaining people's behavior and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in explaining people's behavior and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in explaining people's behavior and
+those settings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those settings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those settings
+now the consequences in those settings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the consequences in those settings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the consequences in those settings
+is relatively unimportant
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is relatively unimportant
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is relatively unimportant
+for example in car purchases of which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example in car purchases of which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example in car purchases of which
+people buy like convertibles and then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people buy like convertibles and then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people buy like convertibles and then
+sort of return their convertibles
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of return their convertibles
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sort of return their convertibles
+you know the loss from that is not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know the loss from that is not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know the loss from that is not
+particularly large maybe there's some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly large maybe there's some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly large maybe there's some
+like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+redistribution across people similarly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+redistribution across people similarly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+redistribution across people similarly
+the catalog orders people might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the catalog orders people might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the catalog orders people might
+purchase too many things and return them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+purchase too many things and return them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+purchase too many things and return them
+really um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really um
+the consequences are not that large and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the consequences are not that large and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the consequences are not that large and
+the actions are often reversible
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the actions are often reversible
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the actions are often reversible
+so why should we then care about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so why should we then care about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so why should we then care about
+production bias well there's at least
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias well there's at least
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias well there's at least
+two really important applications i'm
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two really important applications i'm
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+two really important applications i'm
+going to talk about for a little bit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to talk about for a little bit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to talk about for a little bit
+that really could matter quite a lot one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that really could matter quite a lot one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that really could matter quite a lot one
+is addiction which is people mispredict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is addiction which is people mispredict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is addiction which is people mispredict
+the utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the utility
+from becoming addicted in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from becoming addicted in the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from becoming addicted in the future
+second is depression and hope when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second is depression and hope when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+second is depression and hope when
+people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people
+are depressed they might mispredict how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are depressed they might mispredict how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are depressed they might mispredict how
+they feel when they're not depressed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they feel when they're not depressed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they feel when they're not depressed
+anymore
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anymore
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anymore
+there's also some some i argue that sort
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's also some some i argue that sort
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's also some some i argue that sort
+of marriage and relationships
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of marriage and relationships
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of marriage and relationships
+are um uh quite important the projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are um uh quite important the projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are um uh quite important the projection
+bias might be quite important
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias might be quite important
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias might be quite important
+particularly people have fights
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly people have fights
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly people have fights
+they might want to get divorced very
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might want to get divorced very
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might want to get divorced very
+quickly they might sort of do
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quickly they might sort of do
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quickly they might sort of do
+rash of things about getting married
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rash of things about getting married
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rash of things about getting married
+really quickly or try to get
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really quickly or try to get
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really quickly or try to get
+divorced very quickly and in fact there
+
+ align:start position:0%
+divorced very quickly and in fact there
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+divorced very quickly and in fact there
+are some laws that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are some laws that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+are some laws that
+often prevent that people need to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+often prevent that people need to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+often prevent that people need to
+actually have some cooldown period for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually have some cooldown period for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+actually have some cooldown period for
+like a few days
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like a few days
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like a few days
+where they have to sort of like um um if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where they have to sort of like um um if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where they have to sort of like um um if
+one wants to like get married for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one wants to like get married for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one wants to like get married for
+example you have to get a license and it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example you have to get a license and it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+example you have to get a license and it
+takes a few days and only then you can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+takes a few days and only then you can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+takes a few days and only then you can
+get married
+
+ align:start position:0%
+get married
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+get married
+perhaps or same is true for divorce at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+perhaps or same is true for divorce at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+perhaps or same is true for divorce at
+least in some places
+
+ align:start position:0%
+least in some places
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+least in some places
+perhaps that's um because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+perhaps that's um because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+perhaps that's um because
+people suffer from production by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people suffer from production by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people suffer from production by
+sometimes and when they really mad at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes and when they really mad at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sometimes and when they really mad at
+somebody or something really bad happens
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somebody or something really bad happens
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somebody or something really bad happens
+between them or something really great
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between them or something really great
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+between them or something really great
+happen between them
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen between them
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+happen between them
+they might not be able to predict that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might not be able to predict that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might not be able to predict that
+their preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences
+and their views towards the other person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and their views towards the other person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and their views towards the other person
+might change um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might change um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might change um
+over time but let me tell you now a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time but let me tell you now a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+over time but let me tell you now a
+little bit about addiction and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+little bit about addiction and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+little bit about addiction and
+depression and hope so first addiction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression and hope so first addiction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression and hope so first addiction
+and that's the main application we're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's the main application we're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that's the main application we're
+going to discuss
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to discuss
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to discuss
+so production bias might be important
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so production bias might be important
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so production bias might be important
+for people's initiation when people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for people's initiation when people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for people's initiation when people are
+starting to take drugs so here let's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starting to take drugs so here let's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starting to take drugs so here let's
+define the relative state as the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+define the relative state as the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+define the relative state as the
+person's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person's
+level of addiction so how much has the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+level of addiction so how much has the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+level of addiction so how much has the
+person uh consumed serious cigarettes in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person uh consumed serious cigarettes in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person uh consumed serious cigarettes in
+the last
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the last
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the last
+month or year in an unaddicted state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+month or year in an unaddicted state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+month or year in an unaddicted state
+cigarettes are really not that hard to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes are really not that hard to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes are really not that hard to
+resist right if somebody has never
+
+ align:start position:0%
+resist right if somebody has never
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+resist right if somebody has never
+smoked before
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked before
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked before
+cigarettes are really not that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes are really not that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes are really not that
+attractive same is true also for alcohol
+
+ align:start position:0%
+attractive same is true also for alcohol
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+attractive same is true also for alcohol
+for example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example
+in an unaddicted so in an addictive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in an unaddicted so in an addictive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in an unaddicted so in an addictive
+state however it's very hard to resist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state however it's very hard to resist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state however it's very hard to resist
+cigarettes so if you have smoked a lot
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes so if you have smoked a lot
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes so if you have smoked a lot
+recently you really really would like to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recently you really really would like to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recently you really really would like to
+smoke on any given day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoke on any given day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoke on any given day
+now the unaddicted person might sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the unaddicted person might sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now the unaddicted person might sort of
+think that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think that
+experimenting with cigarettes is fun but
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experimenting with cigarettes is fun but
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+experimenting with cigarettes is fun but
+does not want to get addicted for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does not want to get addicted for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+does not want to get addicted for the
+rest of her life right it's sort of fun
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rest of her life right it's sort of fun
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rest of her life right it's sort of fun
+to do it for a while but really then you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to do it for a while but really then you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to do it for a while but really then you
+want to stop because being addicted for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want to stop because being addicted for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+want to stop because being addicted for
+the rest of your life is really bad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the rest of your life is really bad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the rest of your life is really bad
+you might get really bad health health
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might get really bad health health
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might get really bad health health
+consequences um for instance
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequences um for instance
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequences um for instance
+and that might give you some false um if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that might give you some false um if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that might give you some false um if
+you sort of have production bias you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you sort of have production bias you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you sort of have production bias you
+might have some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might have some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might have some
+false sense of control if you project
+
+ align:start position:0%
+false sense of control if you project
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+false sense of control if you project
+your current
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your current
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your current
+non-addicted preferences into the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+non-addicted preferences into the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+non-addicted preferences into the future
+you might think that you can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might think that you can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you might think that you can
+stop smoking or taking drugs if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stop smoking or taking drugs if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stop smoking or taking drugs if
+necessary
+
+ align:start position:0%
+necessary
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+necessary
+and so then the person might try
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so then the person might try
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so then the person might try
+cigarettes get addicted and consume
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes get addicted and consume
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cigarettes get addicted and consume
+much of her life perhaps she wouldn't do
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much of her life perhaps she wouldn't do
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+much of her life perhaps she wouldn't do
+so if she knew she couldn't quit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if she knew she couldn't quit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so if she knew she couldn't quit
+right that's essentially to say if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right that's essentially to say if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right that's essentially to say if
+you're not addicted right now you might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're not addicted right now you might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're not addicted right now you might
+predict that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+predict that
+it's going to be always easy to stop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's going to be always easy to stop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it's going to be always easy to stop
+smoking and in fact
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoking and in fact
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoking and in fact
+right now it is really easy to stop
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now it is really easy to stop
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now it is really easy to stop
+smoking or resisting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoking or resisting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoking or resisting
+um but the person might mispredict that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but the person might mispredict that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um but the person might mispredict that
+this will always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this will always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+this will always
+be the case in the future even once she
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be the case in the future even once she
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be the case in the future even once she
+is addicted
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is addicted
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is addicted
+um and once she has smoked a lot um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and once she has smoked a lot um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um and once she has smoked a lot um
+because for the person for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because for the person for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because for the person for the
+non-addicted person it's really hard
+
+ align:start position:0%
+non-addicted person it's really hard
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+non-addicted person it's really hard
+to imagine that it might be even hard to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to imagine that it might be even hard to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to imagine that it might be even hard to
+resist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+resist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+resist
+in the future in addition they're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future in addition they're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future in addition they're
+quitting and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quitting and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quitting and
+quitting and restarting cycles are very
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quitting and restarting cycles are very
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quitting and restarting cycles are very
+common when it comes to addiction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+common when it comes to addiction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+common when it comes to addiction
+so addicts often express a desire to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so addicts often express a desire to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so addicts often express a desire to
+stop using substances permanently
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stop using substances permanently
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+stop using substances permanently
+but are unable to follow through that's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but are unable to follow through that's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but are unable to follow through that's
+not surprising and we kind of like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not surprising and we kind of like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not surprising and we kind of like
+thought about this before um and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thought about this before um and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+thought about this before um and
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting can
+essentially predict that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially predict that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+essentially predict that
+um as well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um as well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um as well
+um short-term abstention in addition is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um short-term abstention in addition is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um short-term abstention in addition is
+common well long-run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+common well long-run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+common well long-run
+long-term abstention is rare so in 2000
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-term abstention is rare so in 2000
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+long-term abstention is rare so in 2000
+for example 41
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example 41
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for example 41
+of smokers stopped for at least one day
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of smokers stopped for at least one day
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of smokers stopped for at least one day
+um trying to quit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um trying to quit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um trying to quit
+and but only 4.7 percent um successfully
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and but only 4.7 percent um successfully
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and but only 4.7 percent um successfully
+abstained from more than three months
+
+ align:start position:0%
+abstained from more than three months
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+abstained from more than three months
+that doesn't really seem like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that doesn't really seem like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that doesn't really seem like
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting so you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting so you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quasi-hyperbolic discounting so you
+wouldn't go through like a pointless
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wouldn't go through like a pointless
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+wouldn't go through like a pointless
+short-term pain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short-term pain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+short-term pain
+um if you're and then not follow through
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um if you're and then not follow through
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um if you're and then not follow through
+if you require a hyperbolic discounter
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you require a hyperbolic discounter
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you require a hyperbolic discounter
+the reason being if you're in particular
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the reason being if you're in particular
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the reason being if you're in particular
+that you know that withdrawal symptoms
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you know that withdrawal symptoms
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that you know that withdrawal symptoms
+tend to be on average strongest
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tend to be on average strongest
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tend to be on average strongest
+at the start of a quit attempt so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the start of a quit attempt so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at the start of a quit attempt so
+hyperbolic discounter would not sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hyperbolic discounter would not sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hyperbolic discounter would not sort of
+go over this really difficult pain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+go over this really difficult pain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+go over this really difficult pain
+uh in in the short run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh in in the short run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh in in the short run
+um um if you don't follow through
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um um if you don't follow through
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um um if you don't follow through
+because that's essentially short run
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because that's essentially short run
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because that's essentially short run
+pain now um and then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pain now um and then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+pain now um and then
+three uh recidivism rates especially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three uh recidivism rates especially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+three uh recidivism rates especially
+high when addicts are exposed to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+high when addicts are exposed to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+high when addicts are exposed to
+occasional cues related to past
+
+ align:start position:0%
+occasional cues related to past
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+occasional cues related to past
+consumption
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumption
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumption
+so treatment programs in fact advise
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so treatment programs in fact advise
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so treatment programs in fact advise
+recovering addicts to move to new
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recovering addicts to move to new
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recovering addicts to move to new
+locations
+
+ align:start position:0%
+locations
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+locations
+and to avoid places when previous
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and to avoid places when previous
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and to avoid places when previous
+consumption
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumption
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumption
+where previous consumption took place so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where previous consumption took place so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+where previous consumption took place so
+let's sort of go through these um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let's sort of go through these um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let's sort of go through these um
+one by one and try to see whether we
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one by one and try to see whether we
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one by one and try to see whether we
+particularly two and three whether we
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly two and three whether we
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly two and three whether we
+can explain
+
+ align:start position:0%
+can explain
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+can explain
+those using projection lines
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those using projection lines
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+those using projection lines
+so now let's define the state as the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so now let's define the state as the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so now let's define the state as the
+strength of cravings at the moment and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strength of cravings at the moment and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strength of cravings at the moment and
+suppose this varies randomly or with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose this varies randomly or with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose this varies randomly or with
+exposure to cues
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exposure to cues
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+exposure to cues
+how do you explain the starting um a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how do you explain the starting um a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how do you explain the starting um a
+quit attempt
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quit attempt
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quit attempt
+well suppose an addict is currently
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well suppose an addict is currently
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well suppose an addict is currently
+consuming regularly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consuming regularly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consuming regularly
+she experiences periods of low cravings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she experiences periods of low cravings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she experiences periods of low cravings
+when it's easy to resist that's like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when it's easy to resist that's like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when it's easy to resist that's like
+when the person has just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when the person has just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when the person has just
+smoked uh cravings hello and it's easy
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked uh cravings hello and it's easy
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked uh cravings hello and it's easy
+to resist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to resist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to resist
+so then the person might think well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then the person might think well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then the person might think well
+it'll it'll always be easy to resist so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it'll it'll always be easy to resist so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it'll it'll always be easy to resist so
+she thinks she it's worth um trying to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she thinks she it's worth um trying to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she thinks she it's worth um trying to
+quit and starts the quitting attempt
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quit and starts the quitting attempt
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+quit and starts the quitting attempt
+now how do we explain then why how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now how do we explain then why how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now how do we explain then why how
+people abandon the quit attempt
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people abandon the quit attempt
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people abandon the quit attempt
+well suppose the addict is currently on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well suppose the addict is currently on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well suppose the addict is currently on
+a quit attempt something
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a quit attempt something
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a quit attempt something
+triggers strong cravings which might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+triggers strong cravings which might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+triggers strong cravings which might
+just be over time you get cravings or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just be over time you get cravings or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just be over time you get cravings or
+maybe the person might just
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe the person might just
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe the person might just
+be exposed to some cues so then the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be exposed to some cues so then the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be exposed to some cues so then the
+person feels it's really hard to resist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person feels it's really hard to resist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person feels it's really hard to resist
+the drugs
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the drugs
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the drugs
+and in particular she thinks drugs will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular she thinks drugs will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and in particular she thinks drugs will
+always be hard to resist so she because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always be hard to resist so she because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always be hard to resist so she because
+you know currently she's craving a lot
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know currently she's craving a lot
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you know currently she's craving a lot
+and you can't even imagine that it might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you can't even imagine that it might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you can't even imagine that it might
+be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+be
+um that the craving might stop over time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that the craving might stop over time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that the craving might stop over time
+so she thinks the quit attempt is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so she thinks the quit attempt is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so she thinks the quit attempt is
+impossible to carry you through and so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+impossible to carry you through and so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+impossible to carry you through and so
+she abandons it
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she abandons it
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+she abandons it
+so that way production bias can both
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that way production bias can both
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that way production bias can both
+explain why the person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+explain why the person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+explain why the person
+starts the quit attempt but also why the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starts the quit attempt but also why the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+starts the quit attempt but also why the
+person does not follow through
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+um now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um now
+let's give me a second and then um now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let's give me a second and then um now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let's give me a second and then um now
+how do we
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how do we
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how do we
+think about the recidivism well here um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think about the recidivism well here um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think about the recidivism well here um
+um you know there's not necessarily um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know there's not necessarily um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um you know there's not necessarily um
+uh production bias needed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh production bias needed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh production bias needed
+but here you know people might mis
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but here you know people might mis
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but here you know people might mis
+underestimate
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimate
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+underestimate
+um how important cues are in affecting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um how important cues are in affecting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um how important cues are in affecting
+people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's
+um utility so if it's the case that an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um utility so if it's the case that an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um utility so if it's the case that an
+addict for example when the addict walks
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addict for example when the addict walks
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addict for example when the addict walks
+by like a liquor store or when the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by like a liquor store or when the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+by like a liquor store or when the
+addict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+addict
+is uh talking to friends whom they have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is uh talking to friends whom they have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is uh talking to friends whom they have
+been taking drugs in the past and so on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+been taking drugs in the past and so on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+been taking drugs in the past and so on
+that might really increase people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that might really increase people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that might really increase people's
+marginal utility of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+marginal utility of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+marginal utility of
+using drugs so they might get really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+using drugs so they might get really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+using drugs so they might get really
+really strong cravings and it might be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really strong cravings and it might be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really strong cravings and it might be
+really really hard for them to resist
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really hard for them to resist
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really really hard for them to resist
+now if you know that as an addict who
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now if you know that as an addict who
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now if you know that as an addict who
+who
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+who
+is recovering who's not taking any drugs
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is recovering who's not taking any drugs
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is recovering who's not taking any drugs
+currently
+
+ align:start position:0%
+currently
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+currently
+you should at all costs avoid these cues
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you should at all costs avoid these cues
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you should at all costs avoid these cues
+because you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you know
+you kind of want to make sure that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you kind of want to make sure that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you kind of want to make sure that
+you're not exposed to them and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're not exposed to them and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're not exposed to them and
+but if you have production bias you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but if you have production bias you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but if you have production bias you
+might underestimate
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might underestimate
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might underestimate
+the importance of those cues and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the importance of those cues and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the importance of those cues and
+affecting um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affecting um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+affecting um
+your utility or your your cravings and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your utility or your your cravings and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your utility or your your cravings and
+so you might sort of like walk into a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you might sort of like walk into a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you might sort of like walk into a
+bar thinking like well i haven't really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bar thinking like well i haven't really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bar thinking like well i haven't really
+been smoking or drinking for a long time
+
+ align:start position:0%
+been smoking or drinking for a long time
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+been smoking or drinking for a long time
+so i'm sure they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so i'm sure they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so i'm sure they
+will be able to resist but of course
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be able to resist but of course
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+will be able to resist but of course
+then once you're exposed to these
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then once you're exposed to these
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then once you're exposed to these
+cues um you will not be able to do so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cues um you will not be able to do so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cues um you will not be able to do so
+and that misprediction might really then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that misprediction might really then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that misprediction might really then
+cause
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cause
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+cause
+um recidivism so again that's to that in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um recidivism so again that's to that in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um recidivism so again that's to that in
+that sense
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that sense
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that sense
+production bias is also consistent um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias is also consistent um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias is also consistent um
+with that kind of recidivism
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with that kind of recidivism
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+with that kind of recidivism
+due to cues now um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+due to cues now um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+due to cues now um
+let me talk very briefly only about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let me talk very briefly only about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+let me talk very briefly only about
+depression
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression
+uh and the reason being that we're gonna
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh and the reason being that we're gonna
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh and the reason being that we're gonna
+talk about mental health in a future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talk about mental health in a future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talk about mental health in a future
+lecture
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lecture
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+lecture
+so depressed individuals have the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so depressed individuals have the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so depressed individuals have the
+tendency to project the depressed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tendency to project the depressed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tendency to project the depressed
+feelings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feelings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feelings
+not only to the future but also um to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not only to the future but also um to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not only to the future but also um to
+the past
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the past
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the past
+and so um in particular um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so um in particular um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and so um in particular um
+the past tend to think about um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the past tend to think about um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the past tend to think about um
+depression is the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression is the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression is the
+inability to construct the future and in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+inability to construct the future and in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+inability to construct the future and in
+particular when someone is depressed the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular when someone is depressed the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particular when someone is depressed the
+past and future absorbed entirely by the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+past and future absorbed entirely by the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+past and future absorbed entirely by the
+present
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present
+and people can neither remember feeling
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and people can neither remember feeling
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and people can neither remember feeling
+better nor imagine that they will feel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+better nor imagine that they will feel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+better nor imagine that they will feel
+better um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+better um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+better um
+in the future so that's to say if the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future so that's to say if the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future so that's to say if the
+person is really feeling terrible right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person is really feeling terrible right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person is really feeling terrible right
+now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+they also think you know they always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they also think you know they always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they also think you know they always
+have been feeling terrible in the past
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have been feeling terrible in the past
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+have been feeling terrible in the past
+and they also think that they will
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they also think that they will
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they also think that they will
+always feel terrible in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always feel terrible in the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+always feel terrible in the future
+so then you know life might feel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then you know life might feel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then you know life might feel
+particularly hopeful as there's no scope
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly hopeful as there's no scope
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+particularly hopeful as there's no scope
+for future improvements and if you think
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for future improvements and if you think
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for future improvements and if you think
+your life was always that bad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your life was always that bad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your life was always that bad
+there's really um in some cases people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's really um in some cases people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's really um in some cases people
+might think that it's really not much of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might think that it's really not much of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might think that it's really not much of
+a reason
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a reason
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a reason
+to live and that's of course an
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to live and that's of course an
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to live and that's of course an
+extremely dangerous
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extremely dangerous
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extremely dangerous
+and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+difficult or consequential potentially
+
+ align:start position:0%
+difficult or consequential potentially
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+difficult or consequential potentially
+misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+because of course depressed people can
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because of course depressed people can
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because of course depressed people can
+get better through therapy and to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+get better through therapy and to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+get better through therapy and to
+through to drugs and so on um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+and often there's also remission over
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and often there's also remission over
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and often there's also remission over
+time but if people mispredict that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time but if people mispredict that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+time but if people mispredict that
+they might for instance never seek
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might for instance never seek
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they might for instance never seek
+treatment because they think why would i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+treatment because they think why would i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+treatment because they think why would i
+ever seek treatment if i'm always
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ever seek treatment if i'm always
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ever seek treatment if i'm always
+feeling terrible
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feeling terrible
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+feeling terrible
+for the rest of my life anyway i'm going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the rest of my life anyway i'm going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for the rest of my life anyway i'm going
+to get back to that a little bit when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to get back to that a little bit when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to get back to that a little bit when
+talking about mental health
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talking about mental health
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talking about mental health
+now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+one thing that we have not really talked
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one thing that we have not really talked
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+one thing that we have not really talked
+about is how to think about these
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about is how to think about these
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about is how to think about these
+different biases in particular
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different biases in particular
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different biases in particular
+what's the difference between projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's the difference between projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+what's the difference between projection
+bias and naive quarter hyperbolic
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias and naive quarter hyperbolic
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias and naive quarter hyperbolic
+discounting
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discounting
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discounting
+so both naivete and quasi-hyperbolic
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so both naivete and quasi-hyperbolic
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so both naivete and quasi-hyperbolic
+discounting and production bias entail a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discounting and production bias entail a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+discounting and production bias entail a
+misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction
+so as an example take a smoker who wants
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so as an example take a smoker who wants
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so as an example take a smoker who wants
+to quit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to quit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to quit
+the naive quasi-hyperbolic discounter
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the naive quasi-hyperbolic discounter
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the naive quasi-hyperbolic discounter
+overestimates their future patience
+
+ align:start position:0%
+overestimates their future patience
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+overestimates their future patience
+so that person will sign up for a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that person will sign up for a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so that person will sign up for a
+commitment contract to stop smoking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment contract to stop smoking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment contract to stop smoking
+and might fail due to the overestimation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and might fail due to the overestimation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and might fail due to the overestimation
+of usefulness of commitment devices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of usefulness of commitment devices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of usefulness of commitment devices
+right that person thinks you know that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right that person thinks you know that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right that person thinks you know that
+commitment uh the person understands
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment uh the person understands
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment uh the person understands
+that she has
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that she has
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that she has
+some suppose that's a partially naive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some suppose that's a partially naive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+some suppose that's a partially naive
+person
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+person
+which we need otherwise the person would
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which we need otherwise the person would
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which we need otherwise the person would
+never sign up for a commitment contract
+
+ align:start position:0%
+never sign up for a commitment contract
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+never sign up for a commitment contract
+suppose the person is partially naive
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose the person is partially naive
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suppose the person is partially naive
+the person will sign up for that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person will sign up for that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person will sign up for that
+commitment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment
+contract thinking that's going to help
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contract thinking that's going to help
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contract thinking that's going to help
+them stop smoking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them stop smoking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them stop smoking
+but the person is going to underestimate
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but the person is going to underestimate
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but the person is going to underestimate
+how bad their self-control problems are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how bad their self-control problems are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how bad their self-control problems are
+so then the person might fail because i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then the person might fail because i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so then the person might fail because i
+think the commitment device is really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think the commitment device is really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+think the commitment device is really
+really helpful but in fact it's not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really helpful but in fact it's not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really helpful but in fact it's not
+strong enough now um for protection bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strong enough now um for protection bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strong enough now um for protection bias
+the person might underestimate the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person might underestimate the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the person might underestimate the
+influence of altered future states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+influence of altered future states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+influence of altered future states
+so the person might also sign up for
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person might also sign up for
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so the person might also sign up for
+commitment contracts to stop smoking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment contracts to stop smoking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment contracts to stop smoking
+and then might fail due to the due to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then might fail due to the due to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then might fail due to the due to
+the underestimation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underestimation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underestimation
+of the changes in future cravings that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the changes in future cravings that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the changes in future cravings that
+is to say if you are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is to say if you are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+is to say if you are
+currently not craving you might sign up
+
+ align:start position:0%
+currently not craving you might sign up
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+currently not craving you might sign up
+for a commitment contract
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a commitment contract
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for a commitment contract
+that would help you to continue not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that would help you to continue not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that would help you to continue not
+using drugs
+
+ align:start position:0%
+using drugs
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+using drugs
+and you might um underestimate however
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you might um underestimate however
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and you might um underestimate however
+how bad the cravings will be in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how bad the cravings will be in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how bad the cravings will be in the
+future once you see certain cues or the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future once you see certain cues or the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future once you see certain cues or the
+like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+so again you might choose a commitment
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so again you might choose a commitment
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so again you might choose a commitment
+contract that is not strong enough
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contract that is not strong enough
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+contract that is not strong enough
+because you mispredict your future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you mispredict your future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you mispredict your future
+preferences in this case
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences in this case
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences in this case
+not because it's in the future not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not because it's in the future not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+not because it's in the future not
+because you mispredict your beta like in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you mispredict your beta like in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because you mispredict your beta like in
+case number one
+
+ align:start position:0%
+case number one
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+case number one
+but rather because you mispredict how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but rather because you mispredict how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but rather because you mispredict how
+strongly future states will affect your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strongly future states will affect your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strongly future states will affect your
+preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences
+you can also think about another example
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can also think about another example
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can also think about another example
+anesthesia during childbirth
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia during childbirth
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+anesthesia during childbirth
+you can term uh i get similar sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can term uh i get similar sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you can term uh i get similar sort of
+um patterns both naive quarter
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um patterns both naive quarter
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um patterns both naive quarter
+hyperbolic discounting and production
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hyperbolic discounting and production
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hyperbolic discounting and production
+bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+might be able to explain uh people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be able to explain uh people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be able to explain uh people's
+choices there
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choices there
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choices there
+in particular both of them would
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular both of them would
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in particular both of them would
+potentially predict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potentially predict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+potentially predict
+preference reversals now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference reversals now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preference reversals now
+how can we tell now projection bias in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how can we tell now projection bias in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how can we tell now projection bias in
+ibt regarding beta
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ibt regarding beta
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ibt regarding beta
+apart well the key part here is that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+apart well the key part here is that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+apart well the key part here is that
+projection bias is a state-dependent
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias is a state-dependent
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias is a state-dependent
+risk prediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+risk prediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+risk prediction
+so people are more likely to predict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people are more likely to predict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so people are more likely to predict
+future temptation to either overeat when
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future temptation to either overeat when
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future temptation to either overeat when
+hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry
+they're more likely to predict smoking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're more likely to predict smoking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they're more likely to predict smoking
+when you haven't had a cigarette for a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when you haven't had a cigarette for a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when you haven't had a cigarette for a
+while
+
+ align:start position:0%
+while
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+while
+so when people are when the state in the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when people are when the state in the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when people are when the state in the
+future is different from the current
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future is different from the current
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future is different from the current
+state people might mispredict
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state people might mispredict
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state people might mispredict
+their preferences so now and and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences so now and and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+their preferences so now and and
+present bias in fact it has nothing to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias in fact it has nothing to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias in fact it has nothing to
+do with the state essentially just about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do with the state essentially just about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do with the state essentially just about
+like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like
+the future versus the present so now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future versus the present so now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future versus the present so now
+um what we need what kind of variation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um what we need what kind of variation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um what we need what kind of variation
+do we need to disentangle
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do we need to disentangle
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+do we need to disentangle
+uh the two explanations well you need
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the two explanations well you need
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh the two explanations well you need
+variation and timing
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation and timing
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+variation and timing
+and a particular variation in states so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and a particular variation in states so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and a particular variation in states so
+present bias would say it doesn't really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias would say it doesn't really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias would say it doesn't really
+matter what state you're in it doesn't
+
+ align:start position:0%
+matter what state you're in it doesn't
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+matter what state you're in it doesn't
+matter whether you're hungry or not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+matter whether you're hungry or not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+matter whether you're hungry or not
+right now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+right now
+there's always going to be a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's always going to be a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's always going to be a
+misprediction between the present and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction between the present and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction between the present and
+the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the future
+and production bias would very much say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and production bias would very much say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and production bias would very much say
+the states are matter it's a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the states are matter it's a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the states are matter it's a
+state-dependentness prediction okay so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state-dependentness prediction okay so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+state-dependentness prediction okay so
+if you wanted to look at like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you wanted to look at like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you wanted to look at like
+people's um uh predictions for the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's um uh predictions for the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people's um uh predictions for the
+future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future
+present bias or naivete regarding
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias or naivete regarding
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias or naivete regarding
+present bias would say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias would say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+present bias would say
+it doesn't matter whether you have
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it doesn't matter whether you have
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it doesn't matter whether you have
+smoked or whether you're hungry right
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked or whether you're hungry right
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+smoked or whether you're hungry right
+now
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now
+for your prediction for the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for your prediction for the future
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+for your prediction for the future
+projection bias would say
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias would say
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+projection bias would say
+it does matter quite a bit but then
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it does matter quite a bit but then
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+it does matter quite a bit but then
+there's a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+there's a
+tricky question is when should you in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tricky question is when should you in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tricky question is when should you in
+fact offer people commitment devices
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fact offer people commitment devices
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+fact offer people commitment devices
+well you should probably offer people
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well you should probably offer people
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well you should probably offer people
+commitment devices if you want them to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment devices if you want them to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+commitment devices if you want them to
+choose correct predict uh uh correct
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose correct predict uh uh correct
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose correct predict uh uh correct
+um if you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um if you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um if you
+if you want people to make correct
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you want people to make correct
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+if you want people to make correct
+choices you probably want to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choices you probably want to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choices you probably want to
+offer people commitment devices at times
+
+ align:start position:0%
+offer people commitment devices at times
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+offer people commitment devices at times
+when they're in fact in the same state
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're in fact in the same state
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're in fact in the same state
+so when somebody already has cravings
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when somebody already has cravings
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so when somebody already has cravings
+you want to offer them equipment device
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you want to offer them equipment device
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you want to offer them equipment device
+because that person really understands
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because that person really understands
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+because that person really understands
+how it will feel
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it will feel
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how it will feel
+in the future if instead you offer
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future if instead you offer
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+in the future if instead you offer
+somebody a commitment device
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somebody a commitment device
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+somebody a commitment device
+when they don't have cravings they might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they don't have cravings they might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they don't have cravings they might
+choose their commitment device which i
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose their commitment device which i
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+choose their commitment device which i
+guess is good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+guess is good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+guess is good
+but then they might fail because they
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then they might fail because they
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+but then they might fail because they
+mispredict um how
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict um how
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+mispredict um how
+strong of a commitment device they might
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strong of a commitment device they might
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+strong of a commitment device they might
+need in the future
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+okay so let me then briefly summarize so
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so let me then briefly summarize so
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+okay so let me then briefly summarize so
+so what do we talk about so we talked
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so what do we talk about so we talked
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so what do we talk about so we talked
+about state dependent preferences
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about state dependent preferences
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about state dependent preferences
+so preferences very systematically with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so preferences very systematically with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so preferences very systematically with
+the underlying states for example um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underlying states for example um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underlying states for example um
+hunger food is tastier when you're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger food is tastier when you're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hunger food is tastier when you're
+hungry uh going on dates is um
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry uh going on dates is um
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry uh going on dates is um
+a less enjoyable while being sick
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a less enjoyable while being sick
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+a less enjoyable while being sick
+classes are best when we're arrested
+
+ align:start position:0%
+classes are best when we're arrested
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+classes are best when we're arrested
+um now people know that people's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um now people know that people's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um now people know that people's
+preferences uh vary with their states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences uh vary with their states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+preferences uh vary with their states
+they understand that if you ask like 100
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they understand that if you ask like 100
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they understand that if you ask like 100
+people about like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people about like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people about like
+your preference is different when you're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your preference is different when you're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+your preference is different when you're
+hungry versus not most people would
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry versus not most people would
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry versus not most people would
+probably say you know they want
+
+ align:start position:0%
+probably say you know they want
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+probably say you know they want
+different types of kinds of food and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different types of kinds of food and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+different types of kinds of food and
+they like and maybe hide differently
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they like and maybe hide differently
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they like and maybe hide differently
+when they're hungry
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're hungry
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+when they're hungry
+however there are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+however there are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+however there are
+biases in state dependent decision
+
+ align:start position:0%
+biases in state dependent decision
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+biases in state dependent decision
+making in particular both intuition and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making in particular both intuition and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+making in particular both intuition and
+psychology
+
+ align:start position:0%
+psychology
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+psychology
+suggest that we fail to appreciate the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suggest that we fail to appreciate the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+suggest that we fail to appreciate the
+extent which our preferences change with
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extent which our preferences change with
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+extent which our preferences change with
+the underlying states
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underlying states
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the underlying states
+production bias is a specific
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias is a specific
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+production bias is a specific
+psychological error of this type
+
+ align:start position:0%
+psychological error of this type
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+psychological error of this type
+people overestimate the extent to which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people overestimate the extent to which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people overestimate the extent to which
+future tastes resemble their current
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future tastes resemble their current
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future tastes resemble their current
+tastes
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tastes
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tastes
+and they underestimate the influence
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they underestimate the influence
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and they underestimate the influence
+that the state has on their utility
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that the state has on their utility
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that the state has on their utility
+and that can lead to a systematic
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that can lead to a systematic
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and that can lead to a systematic
+misprediction i showed you quite a few
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction i showed you quite a few
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction i showed you quite a few
+applications in particular addiction and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+applications in particular addiction and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+applications in particular addiction and
+depression might be the most
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression might be the most
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depression might be the most
+consequential applications of projection
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequential applications of projection
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consequential applications of projection
+bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+bias
+now there's one more bias that i told
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's one more bias that i told
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now there's one more bias that i told
+you i'm going to talk about very briefly
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you i'm going to talk about very briefly
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you i'm going to talk about very briefly
+again that's going
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again that's going
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+again that's going
+to be discussed in detail on recitation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be discussed in detail on recitation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to be discussed in detail on recitation
+which is called attribution bias
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is called attribution bias
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+which is called attribution bias
+now uh attribution bias in some sense is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now uh attribution bias in some sense is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+now uh attribution bias in some sense is
+very similar but it's backward looking
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very similar but it's backward looking
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+very similar but it's backward looking
+so while projection bias is the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so while projection bias is the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so while projection bias is the
+misprediction of the influence of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction of the influence of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+misprediction of the influence of
+future states so when you think about
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future states so when you think about
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future states so when you think about
+like the future are you going to be uh
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like the future are you going to be uh
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+like the future are you going to be uh
+how are you going to enjoy a meal
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how are you going to enjoy a meal
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how are you going to enjoy a meal
+depending on your hungry versus not or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depending on your hungry versus not or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+depending on your hungry versus not or
+burgers versus salad
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burgers versus salad
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+burgers versus salad
+how is your future preferences shaped by
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how is your future preferences shaped by
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+how is your future preferences shaped by
+future states attribution bias is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future states attribution bias is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+future states attribution bias is
+instead
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+instead
+backward looking it's the misprediction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+backward looking it's the misprediction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+backward looking it's the misprediction
+of the influence of past
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the influence of past
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of the influence of past
+states so that's to say i want to define
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states so that's to say i want to define
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+states so that's to say i want to define
+that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that
+briefly when judging the value for good
+
+ align:start position:0%
+briefly when judging the value for good
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+briefly when judging the value for good
+people are
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are
+overly influenced by the state in which
+
+ align:start position:0%
+overly influenced by the state in which
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+overly influenced by the state in which
+they previously
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they previously
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+they previously
+consumed it now let me give you some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumed it now let me give you some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+consumed it now let me give you some
+examples and again then you'll talk
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples and again then you'll talk
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+examples and again then you'll talk
+about this more in recitation
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about this more in recitation
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+about this more in recitation
+um people are more likely to return to a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um people are more likely to return to a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um people are more likely to return to a
+restaurant when first
+
+ align:start position:0%
+restaurant when first
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+restaurant when first
+dried when hungry so if you go to a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dried when hungry so if you go to a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+dried when hungry so if you go to a
+restaurant when you're really really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+restaurant when you're really really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+restaurant when you're really really
+hungry you think the food is like
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry you think the food is like
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+hungry you think the food is like
+amazing um well in fact it might just be
+
+ align:start position:0%
+amazing um well in fact it might just be
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+amazing um well in fact it might just be
+that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that
+you're really really hungry so when you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're really really hungry so when you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're really really hungry so when you
+then come back to the restaurant you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then come back to the restaurant you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+then come back to the restaurant you
+might be surprised that in fact it's not
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be surprised that in fact it's not
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+might be surprised that in fact it's not
+that great
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that great
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+that great
+um people are also more likely to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um people are also more likely to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um people are also more likely to
+negatively uh rate a movie
+
+ align:start position:0%
+negatively uh rate a movie
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+negatively uh rate a movie
+um uh when they've seen it while tired
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh when they've seen it while tired
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um uh when they've seen it while tired
+well why is that because
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well why is that because
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well why is that because
+the experience is just not that great
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the experience is just not that great
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the experience is just not that great
+and then you sort of think the movie is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then you sort of think the movie is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and then you sort of think the movie is
+really not that great but really it's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really not that great but really it's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+really not that great but really it's
+just you were tired
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just you were tired
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just you were tired
+people also less likely to recommend a
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people also less likely to recommend a
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people also less likely to recommend a
+zoo to a friend if it rains during the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+zoo to a friend if it rains during the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+zoo to a friend if it rains during the
+last visit
+
+ align:start position:0%
+last visit
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+last visit
+well it's just the experience of that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well it's just the experience of that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+well it's just the experience of that
+zoo is not that great
+
+ align:start position:0%
+zoo is not that great
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+zoo is not that great
+of course on some days it rains in some
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of course on some days it rains in some
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+of course on some days it rains in some
+days it doesn't
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days it doesn't
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+days it doesn't
+so you're not gonna tell usually your
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you're not gonna tell usually your
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so you're not gonna tell usually your
+friends only go there when it's
+
+ align:start position:0%
+friends only go there when it's
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+friends only go there when it's
+sunny people are saying like this zoo is
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny people are saying like this zoo is
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+sunny people are saying like this zoo is
+just not that much fun
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just not that much fun
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+just not that much fun
+and perhaps more um relevant for you
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and perhaps more um relevant for you
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and perhaps more um relevant for you
+people are more likely to wreck them or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are more likely to wreck them or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+people are more likely to wreck them or
+maybe more likely to recommend a class
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe more likely to recommend a class
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+maybe more likely to recommend a class
+um that they took um uh while well
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that they took um uh while well
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um that they took um uh while well
+rested
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rested
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+rested
+so i was um a few years ago i was
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so i was um a few years ago i was
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+so i was um a few years ago i was
+teaching um the 1413 at
+
+ align:start position:0%
+teaching um the 1413 at
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+teaching um the 1413 at
+at 9 00 am and i got lots of complaints
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at 9 00 am and i got lots of complaints
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+at 9 00 am and i got lots of complaints
+from students
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from students
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+from students
+uh about the class being way too early
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh about the class being way too early
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh about the class being way too early
+and i was telling them or trying to tell
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and i was telling them or trying to tell
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+and i was telling them or trying to tell
+them that you know
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them that you know
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+them that you know
+the class is really lots of fun you may
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the class is really lots of fun you may
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the class is really lots of fun you may
+or may not be able to appreciate that if
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or may not be able to appreciate that if
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+or may not be able to appreciate that if
+you're really
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're really
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+you're really
+tired so attribution bias might sort of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tired so attribution bias might sort of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+tired so attribution bias might sort of
+make you think that
+
+ align:start position:0%
+make you think that
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+make you think that
+um might attribute some negative or
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um might attribute some negative or
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um might attribute some negative or
+positive experience
+
+ align:start position:0%
+positive experience
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+positive experience
+um to the actual underlying quality of
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um to the actual underlying quality of
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+um to the actual underlying quality of
+the issue or the
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the issue or the
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the issue or the
+the good that's being offered as opposed
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the good that's being offered as opposed
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+the good that's being offered as opposed
+to as you should
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to as you should
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to as you should
+to the underlying state again you're
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to the underlying state again you're
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+to the underlying state again you're
+going to talk more about this in
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to talk more about this in
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+going to talk more about this in
+recitation now what's next
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recitation now what's next
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+recitation now what's next
+uh remember there's no class on monday
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh remember there's no class on monday
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+uh remember there's no class on monday
+april 20.
+
+ align:start position:0%
+april 20.
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+april 20.
+on wednesday april 22 we're going to
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on wednesday april 22 we're going to
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+on wednesday april 22 we're going to
+talk about gender discrimination and
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talk about gender discrimination and
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+talk about gender discrimination and
+identity
+
+ align:start position:0%
+identity
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+identity
+please read heather sarson's paper on
+
+ align:start position:0%
+please read heather sarson's paper on
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+please read heather sarson's paper on
+section 1 adjust the introduction
+
+ align:start position:0%
+section 1 adjust the introduction
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+section 1 adjust the introduction
+thank you very much
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+ 
+
+ align:start position:0%
+ 
+you
\ No newline at end of file