Publish FUTURE-TS v0.1.0 public preview

index.html

@@ -111,16 +111,59 @@
         </div>
         <table class="board">
           <thead>
-            <tr><th class="mono">Rank</th><th class="mono">Model</th><th class="mono num">Score</th></tr>
+            <tr><th class="mono">Rank</th><th class="mono">Model</th><th class="mono">Tier</th><th class="num mono">Score</th></tr>
           </thead>
           <tbody>
-            <tr><td class="rank mono">01</td><td>Datadog/Toto-2.0-1B</td><td class="num mono">0.2369</td></tr>
-            <tr><td class="rank mono">02</td><td>Datadog/Toto-2.0-313m</td><td class="num mono">0.2214</td></tr>
-            <tr><td class="rank mono">03</td><td>NX-AI/TiRex</td><td class="num mono">0.2024</td></tr>
-            <tr><td class="rank mono">04</td><td>Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small</td><td class="num mono">0.1860</td></tr>
-            <tr><td class="rank mono">05</td><td>amazon/chronos-2</td><td class="num mono">0.1851</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">01</td><td class="model">Datadog/Toto-2.0-1B</td><td class="tier mono">T1</td><td class="num mono">0.2369</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">02</td><td class="model">Datadog/Toto-2.0-313m <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T2</td><td class="num mono">0.2214</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">03</td><td class="model">NX-AI/TiRex <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T3</td><td class="num mono">0.2024</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">04</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1860</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">05</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-2 <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1851</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">06</td><td class="model">NX-AI/TiRex-1.1-gifteval</td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1833</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">07</td><td class="model">google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch</td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1772</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">08</td><td class="model">google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1706</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">09</td><td class="model">Datadog/Toto-2.0-22m</td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1640</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">10</td><td class="model">Datadog/Toto-2.0-4m <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T4</td><td class="num mono">0.1557</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">11</td><td class="model">cisco-ai/cisco-time-series-model-1.0 <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T5</td><td class="num mono">0.1437</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">12</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large</td><td class="tier mono">T6</td><td class="num mono">0.1277</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">13</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-t5-large</td><td class="tier mono">T7</td><td class="num mono">0.1068</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">14</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base</td><td class="tier mono">T7</td><td class="num mono">0.1067</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">15</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-bolt-mini</td><td class="tier mono">T7</td><td class="num mono">0.1030</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">16</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T8</td><td class="num mono">0.0882</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">17</td><td class="model">mldi-lab/Kairos_50m</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0746</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">18</td><td class="model">ibm-research/granite-timeseries-flowstate-r1.1 <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0738</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">19</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-bolt-small</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0645</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">20</td><td class="model">thuml/sundial-base-128m</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0618</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">21</td><td class="model">Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0574</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">22</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-bolt-base <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0518</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">23</td><td class="model">mldi-lab/Kairos_23m</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0464</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">24</td><td class="model">Maple728/TimeMoE-50M <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0406</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">25</td><td class="model">bytedance-research/Timer-S1</td><td class="tier mono">T9</td><td class="num mono">0.0369</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">26</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.0-R-large</td><td class="tier mono">T10</td><td class="num mono">0.0268</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">27</td><td class="model">amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T10</td><td class="num mono">0.0268</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">28</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.0-R-base</td><td class="tier mono">T10</td><td class="num mono">0.0220</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">29</td><td class="model">NeoQuasar/Kronos-base</td><td class="tier mono">T10</td><td class="num mono">0.0207</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">30</td><td class="model">ibm-research/granite-timeseries-flowstate-r1</td><td class="tier mono">T10</td><td class="num mono">0.0176</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">31</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-1.0-R-small</td><td class="tier mono">T11</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.0331</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">32</td><td class="model">Maple728/TimeMoE-200M <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T12</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.0452</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">33</td><td class="model">qcw2333/YingLong_300m</td><td class="tier mono">T12</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.0546</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">34</td><td class="model">mldi-lab/Kairos_10m</td><td class="tier mono">T12</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.0566</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">35</td><td class="model">ibm-research/granite-timeseries-ttm-v1</td><td class="tier mono">T12</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.0648</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">36</td><td class="model">ibm-research/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2 <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T13</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.1112</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">37</td><td class="model">qcw2333/YingLong_110m <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T14</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.1403</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">38</td><td class="model">qcw2333/YingLong_50m</td><td class="tier mono">T15</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.2224</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">39</td><td class="model">qcw2333/YingLong_6m</td><td class="tier mono">T16</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.3691</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">40</td><td class="model">time-series-foundation-models/Lag-Llama</td><td class="tier mono">T17</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.6597</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">41</td><td class="model">ibm-research/ttm-r3 <span class="pareto" title="Pareto-optimal" aria-label="Pareto-optimal">◆</span></td><td class="tier mono">T18</td><td class="num mono neg">-0.7236</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">42</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-moe-1.0-R-base</td><td class="tier mono">T19</td><td class="num mono neg">-1.0577</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">43</td><td class="model">Salesforce/moirai-moe-1.0-R-small</td><td class="tier mono">T19</td><td class="num mono neg">-1.0644</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">44</td><td class="model">AutonLab/MOMENT-1-large</td><td class="tier mono">T20</td><td class="num mono neg">-1.2300</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">45</td><td class="model">ibm-research/granite-timeseries-patchtst-fm-r1</td><td class="tier mono">T21</td><td class="num mono neg">-1.6944</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">46</td><td class="model">AutonLab/MOMENT-1-small</td><td class="tier mono">T22</td><td class="num mono neg">-7.0476</td></tr>
+            <tr><td class="rank mono">47</td><td class="model">AutonLab/MOMENT-1-base</td><td class="tier mono">T23</td><td class="num mono neg">-1281.3842</td></tr>
           </tbody>
         </table>
+        <p class="board-note mono"><span class="pareto-key">◆</span> Pareto-optimal across budget &amp; cost · tiers group models whose rank intervals overlap (not statistically separable).</p>
         <div class="board-links">
           <a href="reports/tsfm_ai_empirical_v2_multi_budget/leaderboard.json">Leaderboard JSON</a>
           <a href="paper/future_ts_empirical.pdf">Empirical paper</a>

styles.css

@@ -261,10 +261,14 @@ h1 {
 
 .stats div {
   border-right: 1px solid var(--line);
-  padding: clamp(28px, 4vw, 44px) 0;
+  padding: clamp(28px, 4vw, 44px) 28px clamp(28px, 4vw, 44px) 0;
+}
+.stats div:not(:first-child) {
+  padding-left: 28px;
 }
 .stats div:last-child {
   border-right: 0;
+  padding-right: 0;
 }
 
 .stat-num {
@@ -371,7 +375,7 @@ code {
 /* ── Leaderboard ──────────────────────────────────────────── */
 .board {
   border-collapse: collapse;
-  margin-top: clamp(36px, 4vw, 52px);
+  margin-top: clamp(28px, 3.5vw, 44px);
   width: 100%;
 }
 
@@ -381,37 +385,79 @@ code {
   font-size: 11px;
   font-weight: 500;
   letter-spacing: 0.06em;
-  padding: 0 0 14px;
+  padding: 0 14px 12px 0;
   text-align: left;
   text-transform: uppercase;
 }
 
 .board td {
   border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);
-  font-size: 15px;
-  padding: 18px 0;
+  font-size: 13.5px;
+  padding: 8px 14px 8px 0;
 }
 
 .board tr:last-child td {
   border-bottom: 0;
 }
 
-.board .num {
-  text-align: right;
-  width: 120px;
+.board tbody tr {
+  transition: background 120ms ease;
+}
+.board tbody tr:hover td {
+  background: rgba(143, 70, 255, 0.04);
 }
 
 .board .rank {
   color: var(--ink-3);
-  font-size: 13px;
-  width: 80px;
+  font-size: 12px;
+  width: 48px;
+}
+.board .model {
+  color: var(--ink);
+}
+.board .tier {
+  color: var(--ink-3);
+  font-size: 12px;
+  width: 60px;
+}
+.board th.num,
+.board td.num {
+  color: var(--ink);
+  font-weight: 500;
+  padding-right: 0;
+  text-align: right;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+  width: 116px;
+}
+.board .num.neg {
+  color: var(--ink-3);
+  font-weight: 400;
+}
+
+.board .pareto {
+  color: var(--accent);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  margin-left: 3px;
+  vertical-align: middle;
 }
 
 .board tbody tr:first-child .rank {
   color: var(--accent-ink);
 }
-.board tbody tr:first-child td:not(.rank) {
-  font-weight: 600;
+.board tbody tr:first-child .model,
+.board tbody tr:first-child .num {
+  font-weight: 700;
+}
+
+.board-note {
+  color: var(--ink-3);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  letter-spacing: 0.02em;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+  margin: 14px 0 0;
+}
+.board-note .pareto-key {
+  color: var(--accent);
 }
 
 .board-links {
@@ -542,6 +588,13 @@ footer a:hover {
   .stats div:nth-child(-n + 2) {
     border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);
   }
+  .stats div:nth-child(odd) {
+    padding-left: 0;
+  }
+  .stats div:nth-child(even) {
+    padding-left: 28px;
+    padding-right: 0;
+  }
   .grid-4,
   .steps {
     grid-template-columns: 1fr;
@@ -551,11 +604,17 @@ footer a:hover {
     border-right: 0;
     padding-left: 0 !important;
   }
-  .board .num {
-    width: 92px;
+  /* drop the secondary Tier column on small screens for legibility */
+  .board th:nth-child(3),
+  .board td:nth-child(3) {
+    display: none;
+  }
+  .board td.num,
+  .board th.num {
+    width: 100px;
   }
   .board .rank {
-    width: 52px;
+    width: 44px;
   }
 }